Looking Ahead to the 2010 Draft

Though day 1 of the 2009 draft just ended, the casual fan has likely stopped paying attention.  While teams frantically struggle to get Day 2, the real cream of the draft,  prepared for, there is already plans to look ahead to 2010.  Like 2009, 2010 figures to be very pitching heavy early and often as many of the top high school bats have signed early and often in the recent drafts.  The 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the weakest in recent memories, serving as the meat between two of the best prospects ever in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, more on that later.

Looking ahead the Top 10 at the time of this writing are:

1. 1. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP, LSU

While not in the league of former number 1 college pitching prospects Mark Prior, Jered Weaver, David Price or Stephen Strasburg, Ranaudo certainly is nothing to sneeze at.  He has tremendous size at 6’7” with very heavy stuff.  His fastball is in the low 90’s and his curve and change are developing as expected.  His mechanics are clean and he slopes downwards towards home plate, much like Chris Young of the Padres.  His only red flag is the tendinitis that cost him a number of starts as a freshman.  If he shows that it was only a onetime injury, he profiles as a solid front of the rotation starter.

2. A.J. Cole – RHP, Oviedo H.S.

For those who follow tournaments and showcases, Cole’s name has been on the scene for quite some time.  He is one of the top prep pitchers in recent memory and is poised to enter the Beckett/Porcello stratosphere.  He shows very advanced stuff for his age working in a mid 90’s fastball with a true 9-3 slider in the low 80’s and a solid, yet developing change.  Incredibly solid mechanics with a low ¾ arm slot that simply explodes the last 15 feet.  He has a true power pitcher’s build at 6’4” with most of his mass at his lower body.  A bona fide ace in the making.  He should move incredibly quickly for a prepster.  I expect him in a big league rotation no later than 21.

3. Brandon Workman – RHP, Texas

Seeing Workman’s name this high might really surprise people, but that’s how high I am on him.  I was amongst the few Phillies fans seriously lobbying his signing, no matter what it took.  Workman has a mid 90’s fastball and filthy breaking stuff.  His build is very similar to Mark Prior at a solid 6’5”, 220 pounds.  He pounds the bottom of the strike zone and pitches off of his fastball which sets up the breaking stuff.  His mechanics do worry me a little bit as there is a clear pressure put on his shoulder, but the should be able to offset that with terrific leg movement and motion.  He throws from a mid ¾ and has the Jake Peavy like sling throwing across his body.

4. Bryce Brentz – OF, Middle Tennessee State

Another name some might find a bit too high simply based on his level of competition, but one thing’s for sure—he can hit.  Brentz led the NCAA in homers, average, slugging, and his 1.465 OPS is scary good.  He is a two way player with a mid 90’s fastball on the mound, but make no mistake, he is a hitter.  I expect him to find himself in right field where his cannon will serve as a legit weapon.  His coming out party should be over the summer when he plays for Team USA.  His only weakness, if you can call it that, is his moderate speed.

5. Drew Pomeranz – LHP, Ole Miss

Pomeranz is one of the players who really benefited from college instead of signing right out of high school.  As a 12^th round draft pick in 2007, Pomeranz had some velocity questions and most of all, mechanical questions.  His velocity is never going to blow anyone away, often working around 89-92, but he offers an absolutely filthy putaway breaker.  He throws a true slow 12-6 curveball in the Barry Zito mode, and also shows a below average changeup.  Pomeranz is going to have to work on keeping his arm angle the same for all 3 of his pitches, something pro hitters will pick up on extremely early.  It will be interesting to see him attempt to overcome days when he doesn’t have his best stuff.

6. Jarrett Parker – OF, Virginia

Parker might be the best 5 tool player in this draft, though that is a term that I personally loathe and find to be incredibly overused.  Parker really came forward with an extremely impressive sophomore campaign and will look to capitalize on that with Team USA over the summer.  He has extremely quick hands with an open stance that looks a lot like Chase Utley’s.  He makes contact and waits on the ball extremely well and has some of the fastest hips I’ve ever scouted.  In the field, he has terrific range and projects as a plus right-fielder.  Parker has sneaky fast speed and has 30+ stolen base potential.  He is presently 6’4”, 205, but has the frame to add on about 30 pounds of muscle and still keep the same speed.  He really looks a lot like a left-handed version of Jayson Werth.

7. Deck McGuire – RHP, Georgia Tech

McGuire has an absolutely huge frame and it works to his favor when he pitches.  His body is very similar to John Lackey, as is his stuff.  He pitches down at 91-93, but has the build to add another 2-3 mph as he really grows into his enormous frame.  He has two very solid breaking pitches with a tight dropping 78-80 slider and complements it with a 72-74 mph 11/5 curveball.  He has a very solid changeup, but rarely uses it.  Mechanically, he’s solid, but the range of motion in his legs needs to extend a number of degrees.

8. Casey Mulholland – RHP, Pendleton HS

Mulholland is another talented 2-way player who has a chance to really ascend into the top echelon of prospects.  He has a very large frame and at 6’3” will have a great chance to add mass as he grows into his body.  He has a loose delivery in the low 90’s with great movement, and complements it with a straight change and a hard breaking curve.  His mechanics are inconsistent but show a lot of promise and poise.  His leg movement is tremendous and extends himself around 105 degrees, but his arm movement is incredibly inconsistent.  He alternates between a high ¾ delivery and over the top.  His best movement is over the top, which a strong pitching coach should be able to nail into his head.

9. Mike McGee – OF, Florida State

And our third 2-way player in the top 9 makes his appearance now.  McGee really broke out as a sophomore and surprised a number of people, including me.  He projects as a left-fielder, first basemen or designated hitter type.  He hits from an open stance and has quick hips and quick hands turning on the ball in a hurry.  He shows power to all fields, though it’s likely to be more gap power in the majors.  He sits back on the ball very well and has good contact skills, despite a near 1:1 K/BB ratio.  I do worry about his contact level as he develops as a player, and I always have a bit of a concern with FSU players, as they rarely transition as well as you’d think.  However, McGee and Posey do appear to be legit.

10. Matt Harvey – RHP, UNC

Entering 2009, Harvey was the consensus top prospect for the 2010 draft, but since getting onto campus in North Carolina he has regressed in every way possible.  Harvey was mentioned in the same breath as Porcello, Parker and Bumgarner in 2007, but opted for college instead.  He has a mid 90’s fastball, but loses his velocity quickly.  His curve is right now his best pitch, showing a terrific break and his changeup.  However, there are red flags galore with Harvey, and unless they’re corrected or amended, he’s going to fall much lower on this list.  His stuff is wildly inconsistent and his changeup alludes him from inning to inning.  Though he pounds down in the zone, his fastball can become extremely flat and hittable.  His biggest question is attitude on the mound.  The best ones have a bulldog demeanor and tighten up when they’re at their most vulnerable, while Harvey folds under pressure often.  In my years of scouting, I can’t remember a player who went from being a blue chip high school prospect to someone who’s fighting to keep themselves in the top 10.  Even with all of these knocks, if Harvey has a strong summer and junior season, he can easily see himself in the top 5.

Please note that if the Bryce Harper GED rumors are true and he enters the draft, he immediately slots into number 1 and everyone falls one level.

2009 MLB Draft Schedule

For those who have followed my blog throughout the year previewing the draft, I will be live blogging tomorrow.  Stay tuned for the website tomrorow.  I anticipate logging on somewhere around 5:30 EST.

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2009 Final Mock Draft

We’re at less than 24 hours to the draft and my blood is flowing.  There are more storylines in this draft than I can ever remember and more uncertainty over the top picks than ever before.  There are bound to be some stars, and some jobs lost over these picks and a franchise’s entire direction could change instantly.  Without further ado, this is how I see the first round going.

1. Washington Nationals  – Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State

Simply put, the best prospect in a very long time to the worst team.  He’ll be worth every cent.

2. Seattle Mariners – Dustin Ackley, OF/INF UNC

There’s talk of them being higher on Crow based on signability, but in the end, the team needs a true rebuild.  That said, I’d still take Purke here and get the bats later on in the draft.  I’ve said it for a few months now; I can see Ackley moving to second if his arm strength is fully rebounded.  He has the quickness and the lateral movement to handle a shift over, which makes him that much more valuable.  To me, he’s basically a younger Chase Utley.

3. San Diego Padres – Donovan Tate, OF Cartersville HS
The talk has been about Minor versus Tate, but in my mind, that’s the Padres way of driving down Tate’s price.  Personally, I’m not sold on him, but for the weakest system in baseball, adding the best potential 5 tool player makes  a lot of sense.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Tony Sanchez, C Boston College

Bad Pirates management continues to rear its head here.  Unless the Pirates opt to strongly break slot later on in the draft, this is another typical poor choice.  Sanchez should be starting next year, but doesn’t offer much else.

5. Baltimore Orioles – Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS
Baltimore could easily go Grant Green here as their system is loaded with arms.  Wheeler should be one of the most signable talents in the draft and offers another solid arm into the mix.  He could be one of the first signs this year.

6. San Francisco Giants- Shelby Miller, RHP Brownwood HS

I was one of, if not the, first to have this pick here and I’m not changing.  Though the Giants have gone position player recently, this is their M.O. prep pitcher with dominating stuff who is a bit raw.  Next to Strasburg, Miller has the best stuff in this draft.  He is a lot like a right handed Madison Bumgarner, the best pitching prospect in the minors.

7. Atlanta Braves – Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley HS

Matzek has tremendous stuff and tremendous inconsistency, something that is very scary in a high schooler and doesn’t bode well for future success.  The Braves system is fairly anemic with pitching, especially after acquiring Nate McClouth.  Matzek should be the fastest to arrive of all the prepsters.

8. Cincinnati Reds – Alex White, RHP UNC

Talk about inconsistency galore with flashes of brilliance.  White could wind up as either a front line starter or back of the bullpen closer.  He has been playing with a splitter this year, which I actually think will help him in the long run.  White is a power sinker pitching, much like Jake Peavy, which plays out well in Great American Ballpark.  If the Reds can sign him, he could step into the rotation in 2011.

9. Detroit Tigers – Jacob Turner, RHP Westminster Christian Academy

Turner is undoubtedly the top prep righty in this draft, but that comes with a mild price.  He’s not in the same mold as Rick Porcello, but shows a mid 90’s fastball with a solid 12-6 curve and a very solid change.  Like Porcello though, the Tigers could immediately assign him to High A ball and he will succeed.

10. Washington Nationals – Mike Minor, LHP Vanderbilt

Acting GM Mike Rizzo says that the team has money to spend here, which I don’t doubt, but I don’t expect them to break the bank for anyone either.  Minor is a typical college lefty who should absolutely fly through the Nats’ system.

11. Colorado Rockies – Kyle Gibson, RHP Missouri

In terms of numbers, Gibson is not too far behind Strasburg, but has major mechanical issues to account for and a stress fracture in his forearm—ouch!   The Rockies desperately need pitching behind Aaron Cook and Gibson is a fair choice.

12. Kansas City Royals – Grant Green, SS USC

Green has been all over the draft board this year, from numbers 1 through the supplemental round.  Kansas City hasn’t been afraid to spend big in the draft and Green gives the team a legit up the middle option who compares between Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria.  The selection also allows the team to move Moustakas to a position where he has a chance to excel either at first or left field.

13. Oakland Athletics – Rich Poythress, 1B Georgia

Oakland is one of the biggest wildcards in the first round as there are a million scenarios they could go with.  Their offense so far has been rather anemic and filled with incredible disappointment. Granted their system is loaded with 1B/DH types, Poythress is too powerful to overlook.

14. Texas Rangers – Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS

Apparently Purke is looking for Porcello money, which is just plain silly, but a somewhat hometown discount has to be enticing to Purke’s people.  I’d take Purke at number 2 overall, so to get him this low is an absolute steal.  He reminds me of a combination of Scott Kazmir and Clayton Kershaw.

15. Cleveland Indians – Tanner Scheppers, RHP Independent League

Scheppers is one of the best talents in the draft, but shoulder injuries are no laughing matter.  If he’s fully recovered, he’s an ace in the making, but that’s a big if.  He’s had velocity back this spring, but  you just never know with these types of injuries.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Leake, RHP Arizona State

Leake has been a recognizable name for a number of years, but has really started dominating in his junior season.  He is a bit undersized, but has very projectable stuff, and is tremendously polished.  Arizona’s pitching depth has taken a major step backward, and Leake will help stabilize it rather quickly.

17. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bobby Borchering, INF Bishop Verot HS
Gaining the extra 1^st round pick when losing Orlando Hudson allows the Dbacks to take a raw hitter with ridiculous power and try to develop him.  Borchering has tremendous size at 6’4” and projects as either a shaky third basemen or a very solid first basemen.  His swing is very long and has some flaws, but the raw tools are there.

18. Florida Marlins- Chad James, RHP Oklahoma HS

A typical Marlins pick choosing a prepster with lights out stuff.  I hear James is looking for a pretty big bonus as well, but the Marlins have shown a penchant to get things done, within reason.

19. Cardinals – Mike Trout, CF Millville HS

The Cardinals have a penchant for choosing the gritty, tough players and Trout fits that mold rather well.  In another column, I wrote about the return of the centerfielder, and Trout is the truest centerfielder available.  He is a mirror clone of Aaron Rowand with an actual throwing arm.

20. Blue Jays – Tim Wheeler, OF Sacramento State

Wheeler is the best power/speed guy in the draft and the Blue Jays desperately need both.  Wheeler should immediately slot into the left field mold allowing all of the Jays a shot at returning to their natural positions.

21. Houston Astros – Everett Williams, OF McCallum HS

All outfielders—all the time.  That’s the Astros’ draft plans this year, and to get the local guy makes it that much better for them.  The Astros system is amongst, if not the worst in baseball.  Williams immediately moves into the upper echelon of prospects and projects as a solid fielder and hitter.

22. Minnesota Twins – Chad Jenkins, RHP Kennesaw State

A player who should have gone earlier based on talent but falls based on the law of attrition.  Jenkins has very reliable stuff and projects well into the fold.  He combines low mileage with high quality stuff and enables the Twins a chance to add to their terrific young pitchers.

23. Chicago White Sox – Eric Arnett, RHP Indiana

The White Sox have really bad pitching as evidenced by their aggressive pursuit of Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt.  Arnett has shot up draft boards recently and might not even be around at this point, though history has shown that the late risers are often the fast fallers—see Shooter Hunt and Christian Friedrich last year.

24. Los Angeles Angels – Rex Brothers, LHP Lipscomb

Lipscomb has been another fast riser because of his absolutely filthy fastball, which plays around 98 to 99 mph.  Personally, I see Brothers fitting in as a closer at the big league level, which the Angels could definitely use.  Brian Fuentes has to really be considered a colossal disappointment and Brothers could help the team this year.

25. Angels – Aaron Crow, RHP Independent League

With 2 first round picks, the Angels can afford to take a gamble on Crow who plummeted based on incredible demands yet again.

26. Milwaukee Brewers – Jared Mitchell, OF LSU

Athletic, fast and another potential 5 tooler to add to an aging Brewers outfield.  He is mildly reminiscent of current centerfielder Mike Cameron.

27. Seattle Mariners – Matt Hobgood, RHP Norco HS

Another player that is all over the board, as high as 12 and as low as sandwich.  The Mariners need everything, bats, arms, maybe even some legs.  Hobgood is a power arm who should be fairly signable after shelling out millions for Ackley.

28. Red Sox – Max Stassi, C Yuba City HS
The Sox haven’t shied away from taking who they perceive to be the best player available in recent years, and nothing will change this year.  Stassi has a straight power swing in an incredibly compact body that should be able to stay behind the plate.  Jason Varitek isn’t getting any younger and there are no legit in house replacements.

29. New York Yankees – A.J Pollock, OF Notre Dame

Another team who often goes after the tough signs, but after getting burned by Gerrit Cole last year, the Yankees take a safer approach this year.  The  Yankees are aging much faster than anyone anticipated and their system is fairly void of talent in the outfield outside of Austin Jackson.

30. Tampa Bay Rays – Wil Myers, C Wesleyan Christian Academy

Word on the street is that the Rays desperately want a catcher.  After passing on Buster Posey last year, the Rays opt to go for a need based pick instead of their typical best player available option.  There are a lot of questions as to whether Myers can stay behind the plate, but his bat plays out anywhere on the diamond.

31. Chicago Cubs – Drew Storen, RHP Stanford

There is no doubt that the Cubs are built to win now, and their relievers simply aren’t getting it done.  Carlos Marmol is his typical filthy self but Kevin Gregg has been awful.  Storen is a lot like last year’s first round pick in Andrew Cashner in that he’s a college closer who could likely be an MLB starter; however, I see the Cubs keeping him as a reliever and giving him a call before the September 1 deadline as they make a playoff push.

32. Colorado Rockies – Brett Jackson, OF Cal

Jackson will remind a lot of Rockies players of Matt Holiday with more strikeouts.  He has legit power with 30+ homer potential, but has never really put it together at the college level. The tools are there though and with the right coaching, will be an absolute masher.

2009 MLB Mock Draft

The NFL Draft is presently going on, which means we are less than 2 months away from the baseball draft.  This year has a lot of intriguing names, and some definite future stars.  However, it also appears to be one of the weakest drafts in recent memory, with clear tiered delineation.  It should definitely be a fantastic year for players to receive a fair amount of money, as the 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the worst this decade, possibly challenging 2003 for that dubious distinction.

The big story entering the draft season is how much money will it take to sign Stephen Strasburg.  The answer, we will find out, is a lot.

1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State

The only way this move doesn’t happen is if the bonus demands by Scott Boras are exorbitant. Strasburg is easily the best pitching prospect since Mark Prior, combining a 97-101 mph fastball with an absolutely devastating slider. I compare him quite often to Brad Lidge with a better changeup and makeup. He has the stuff and polish to make fewer than 20 minor league starts before reaching the show.

2. Seattle Mariners – Dustin Ackley, OF/INF UNC

Ackley, simply put, is the best hitter in the country. He has an incredibly short, compact stroke that shows power to all fields, and translates well to any park. I’ve often compared Ackley to a young Chase Utley, and feel he could handle the move over to second base to make him an even more valuable player. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he will be an asset no matter where he plays on the diamond.

3. San Diego Padres – Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley HS

In many scouts’ eyes, Matzek is the better pitcher between he, Purke and Miller. I disagree with that statement, but the Padres are no strangers to kowtowing to the general consensus, and cost will most assuredly be an issue. Matzek is a fairly local kid, who should move more quickly than many other prepsters because of his overall polish. A hitter here is possible as well, but given the void of youth in their system, I expect them to go heavy prep.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Grant Green, SS USC

The Pirates have shown a penchant for going best player available, specifically college ranked, in 2 out of the last 3 years, with Daniel Moskos the lone exception. Green will remind scouts a lot of Troy Tulowitzki combining size, power and fielding ability. He rebounded from a pretty terrible start to the year, and has shown the skill that made scouts drool at the Cape. He has a long swing, something the Pirates coaching staff will have to keep in check to avoid prolonged slumps.

5. Baltimore Orioles – Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS
With Purke in the system, the Orioles likely take the reign as top pitching depth in baseball. Purke shows flashes of absolute dominance with an upper 90’s fastball and a slurve that ranges anywhere from 79-82 mph. Some scouts worry about his mechanics as he throws across his body, but his leg position and shoulder position offset any of that. He should move extremely quickly. His only weakness has been inconsistency, something I expect to change.

6. San Francisco Giants- Shelby Miller, RHP Brownwood HS

This pick would certainly be the first surprise of the draft, but the way Miller has thrown in recent weeks definitely make this a legitimate pick. The Giants have never shied away from somewhat raw prepsters, and almost always reap the rewards of their risk. Few prognosticators, myself excluded, were incredibly high on Madison Bumgarner in 2007, but the Giants saw the potential and have arguably the 2^nd best pitching prospect in baseball right now. Miller is hitting 98 mph with developing secondary stuff, and is reminiscent of 2002 Giants pick, Matt Cain.

7. Atlanta Braves – Donovan Tate, OF Cartersville HS

This would be the ideal scenario for the Braves, as they covet toolsly players from Georgia. Tate shows true 5 tool potential, but is incredibly raw from a baseball standpoint. Tate will be a tough sign as he is a 2 sport athlete who is committed to UNC, which tends to keep its recruits. I expect Tate to move slowly through the system as he relies almost exclusively on athletic ability versus baseball ability, but the Braves have good luck with players fitting this mold.

8. Cincinnati Reds – Alex White, RHP UNC

White entered the season as the 2^nd or 3^rd best prospect, but has shown an awful lot of inconsistency, coupled with extremely high bonus demands. White is a sinkerball pitcher with mid 90’s velocity, something that fits in very well in Great American Ballpark. He has one of the lowest floors of any of the players in the draft, but also a fairly low ceiling. He projects as a number 2 starter on a great team, or a number 1 starter on a marginal team.

9. Detroit Tigers – Aaron Crow, RHP Ft. Worth Cats

Another year, another high bonus for Detroit, as Crow’s demands will likely be in line with his 2008 ones. Crow has a lot of supporters and a lot of doubters, so this pick is likely boom or bust. He combines a mid 90’s fastball with an above average breaking ball. There are some major hitches in his mechanics which Tigers brass will likely have to correct, as it is a sign of some major elbow issues ahead.

10. Washington Nationals – Luke Bailey, C Troup County HS

I expect the Nats to go for the best, signable player here after spending millions on signing Strasburg. Bailey is one of the rare prep catchers who has a chance to stay behind the plate. He shows a lot of contact skills with developing power.

11. Colorado Rockies – Kyle Gibson, RHP Missouri

In terms of numbers, Gibson is not too far behind Strasburg, but has major mechanical issues to account for. The Rockies have never shied away from these issues, and tend to overlook many shortcomings and only look at the pros of a player. Gibson likely has a few years of dominance before a major injury, unless his delivery is completely reworked. He is a power pitcher with fairly good groundball tendancies and should fit in well at Coors.

12. Kansas City Royals – Mike Minor, LHP Vanderbilt

On stuff and ability alone, this might be a bit of an overdraft; however, Minor should move faster than anyone in this draft, Strasburg included. He is as close to a “can’t miss prospect” as there is, as he commands all of his pitches, and throws them for strikes.

13. Oakland Athletics – Rich Poythress, 1B Georgia

This has to be Oakland’s ideal scenario, as Poythress is an absolute monster at the plate. He looks a lot like 2008 first rounder Justin Smoak, combining power and patience. Poythress would ideally be ready when Giambi’s contract expires, giving them an internal option at a power position. He might be the most steady and ready bat in this draft.

14. Texas Rangers – Rex Brothers, LHP Lipscomb

His velocity is way up, as is his performance. The Rangers are in the best shape of probably any team is baseball with the best farm system. Brothers is a definite luxury pick, but has one of the highest boom or bust potentials of any player. He is hitting 97-99 mph, and if he doesn’t pan out as a starter, shows the velocity and secondary stuff necessary to close.

15. Cleveland Indians – Tim Wheeler, OF Sacramento State

Wheeler should remind Indians fan of current centerfielder Grady Sizemore. He has great power and speed, with solid instincts. He projects more to left field than center and with his speed has great range. He might be a longer term project having faced weaker pitching throughout his college career, but shows a great eye.

16. Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Leake, RHP Arizona State

Leake has been a recognizable name for a number of years, but has really started dominating in his junior season. He is a bit undersized, but has very projectable stuff, and is tremendously polished. Arizona’s pitching depth has taken a major step backward, and Leake will help stabilize it rather quickly.

17. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bobby Borchering, INF Bishop Verot HS
Gaining the extra 1^st round pick when losing Orlando Hudson allows the Dbacks to take a raw hitter with ridiculous power and try to develop him. Borchering has tremendous size at 6’4” and projects as either a shaky third basemen or a very solid first basemen. His swing is very long and has some flaws, but the raw tools are there.

18. Florida Marlins- Zach Wheeler, RHP East Paulding HS

The Marlins have shown a penchant to target prepsters and Wheeler has command of 3 pitches right now. He doesn’t fit the Marlins typical boom or bust prep pick, but should move quickly through their system.

19. Cardinals – Andy Oliver, LHP Oklahoma State

The Cardinals almost always go safe pick, and Oliver is no exception. He has had a rather poor start to the season, but still shows above average stuff and command. He is most notable for his lawsuit against the NCAA, but make no mistake, he has definite top of the rotation stuff.

20. Blue Jays – Brett Jackson, OF Cal

Jackson’s strikeouts are really a cause for alarm, as he’s obviously doing it with aluminum. Apart from his contact skills problem, he has shown an ability to get on base and fairly impressive power. He does show very good baserunning skills, and projects to a 20 stolen base type player in the big league. He reminds of Jayson Werth.

21. Houston Astros – Mychal Givens, SS Plant HS

The Astros are one of the few teams who will likely give Givens the chance to play every day as he shows tremendous athletic ability, and above all, Wade loves his athletes. At the plate, Givens’ swing is incredibly long and his pitch recognition is incredibly subpar. He has great speed on the basepaths and a very strong arm at shortstop. As a pitcher, he throws in the upper 90’s, but his arm slot makes him project more to a closer than a starter.

22. Minnesota Twins – Jacob Turner, RHP Westminster Christian

The Twins are a team who doesn’t deviate from their draft board oten, and at this point, Turner is the best available player. He throws in the mid 90’s with a very solid 12-6 curveball and a developing change. He entered the spring as the top right handed prepster, and has done nothing to change that, but he has been passed by a number of players truly dominating. His mechanics are pretty solid and projects to a great number 3 starter.

23. Chicago White Sox – Max Stassi, C Yuba City HS

Stassi is an extremely compact catcher with a power swing. Behind the plate, he has a fantastic arm and should be able to gun down most baserunners. As with most prep catchers, the White Sox will need to be patient with him.

24. Los Angeles Angels – Tanner Scheppers, RHP Indy League

The Angels are reeling from injury and tragedy and the glut of pitching depth they had has been evaporated, and then some. Scheppers was one of the 3 best pitchers in the 2008 draft, but his shoulder injury really affected him and he ultimately did not sign. He will need to show that he is fully recovered, and if so, he combines a mid 90’s fastball with a dominating split and breaker.

25. Los Angeles Angels – Evertt Williams, OF McCallum HS

Williams is a very toolsy athlete who the Angels love. He shows great contact skills, and developing power and defense. He is marginally undersized, but the Angels have never shied away from conventional thoughts.

26. Milwaukee Brewers – Kendal Volz, RHP Baylor

Volz has shown diminished strikeout stuff with increased walks, so this is a definite cause for alarm. However, the Brewers desperately need pitching and Volz should be able to move quickly, especially if he returns to form. He has a very projectable frame at 6’5” and solid mechanics.

27. Seattle Mariners – Brad Boxberger, RHP USC

No player has shot up the boards faster than Boxberger. He has a solid frame, good velocity and good secondary stuff. His command fluctuates, hut has shown an ability to dominate at the start of the season. He will likely remind Mariners fans of a healthier, more sturdy Brandon Morrow.

28. Boston Red Sox – Kentrail David, OF Tennessee
Davis is expected to have the second or third highest bonus demand in the draft behind Strasburg and Ackley. However, his performance in 2009 really is worrisome. He is short and stocky, but powerful, much in the mode of Kirby Puckett. He has incredibly quick hands, and on a team where he can be a complement, not the star, could easily excel.

29. New York Yankees – Matt Graham, RHP Conroe HS

Graham was my top prepsters entering the spring, but he has really fallen off a cliff. He was a definite velocity first pitcher, hitting 95-97 regularly. However, his velocity is down to around 91, which makes me either worry about injury or be glad he’s dropped down to control his stuff, like Zach Greinke. He is a huge work in progress, but his leg movement and arm deception make him an intriguing pick, especially for a team who can afford luxury. At the same spot, I’d take Graham over Cole.

30. Tampa Bay Rays – Ben Tootle, RHP Jacksonville State

Picking this low is certainly surprising for them, but they still get a potential star—go figure. Tootle will fit right in, and move quickly through the system, either as a starter or closer. Personally, I think he projects better as a closer with filthy velocity and could debut as early as the year he is drafted.

31. Chicago Cubs – Scott Bittle, RHP Ole Miss

A lot of people aren’t as high on Bittle as they are on other relievers this year. However, I disagree whole heartedly. The Kelly Gregg experiment has been a colossal failure and when Carlos Marmol takes over the closer duty, there is going to be a void for 8^th inning player with strikeout ability. Bittle should spend very little time in the minors and be able to help out a club who is built to win now, win.

32. Colorado Rockies – Matt Davidson, 3B Yucaipa HS

The Rockies can’t pass up Davidson’s special bat. He shows power to all fields and is a solid defender at third. He has advanced polish at the plate and has shot up draft boards. He will be a tough sign, but he’s too good to let play for SC.

RIP Nick Adenhart

I know I haven’t been blogging much recently, as my life has been fairly hectic, however this story necessitated me to log on.
As I’m sure most of you have heard, Angels rookie right hander Nick Adenhart was killed early this morning in a hit and run accident. I’ve been following Nick for quite some time, and this news is hitting me like it has been a member of my family.

I want to send my deepest condolences to Nick’s family, friends, teammates and anyone lucky enough to have known him.

I’ll assume that the driver of the van was intoxicated and can only hope that his death, along with the countless others killed by alcohol related motor vehicle incidents can serve to finally amend the laws involving alcohol.

I think the Angels’ press release is the best I’ve seen on this tragedy and I implore you all to read it and keep the Adenhart family in your prayers.

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090409&content_id=4179446&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana

Looking Ahead – Grant Green

After far too long of a lull, we continue to look ahead to the 2009 draft. The one player who has really played himself from first round to top 5 consideration is Southern Cal’s outstanding shortstop, Grant Green. Green shows projectable power, solid defense, contact to all fields and the tools to truly become an elite shortstop at the next level. He absolutely destroyed the Cape Cod League and put scouts on notice that he will be battling Dustin Ackley for top college hitter.

At the Plate:

Green shows absolutely tremendous power, especially for his position. However, his swing can get very long at times, giving any team who drafts him a scare about prolonged slumps. However, he has very quick hands and has shown a propensity for adjusting to wood very well. 30 home runs and 40 doubles isn’t out of the question.

On the Field:

Green is extremely big for his position, but fields it very well. He shows naturally good footwork and takes the correct routes to balls hit to both his left and right. His arm is a bona-fide plus tool, which will certainly help him if he has to move to third base, though that is unlikely provided he keeps his current body type.

On the basepaths: This is somewhere I strongly disagree with a lot of people about. I project Green as maybe a 10-12 steal person, at best. Many are pegging him as a 5 tool talent, but I just don’t see it. He has solid speed, but is not a world burner. His skills are getting on base and emptying the bases, not a running game.

The skinny:

Green really has quelled many concerns about his overall skill set. At college, he grew into a complete player, but it’s his bat that makes him truly special. To get outfield quality numbers at shortstop with above average defense is one of the many reasons Green will hear his name very early next year.

By the numbers:

.390/.438/.644

.43 SO/BB

10 SB

.956 Fielding %

MLB Comparison: Troy Tulowitzki

What happened to the Hall of Fame?

As many of you know, a great injustice was committed yesterday—Jim Rice was elected to the Hall of Fame. Don’t get me wrong; Jim Rice was a fine player, a Red Sox Hall of Famer to be sure…but National Baseball Hall of Fame? Please. When I read that Rice was selected over Bert Blyleven, the third best player to not be in the Hall of Fame, was again omitted and that Rice was granted entrance, I had to double take thinking that my PDA was lying to me.

Let me say this, Jim Rice, Hall of Fame, 2009. That’s right; Jim Rice is now mentioned in the same breath as the best left fielders in baseball. His main metric that separated him from the rest? Fearitude. Yes, that’s right fearitude. Because Jim Rice scared pitchers, he is a Hall of Famer. Do you know what else scares a lot of pitchers? Spiders and needles. Should they be in the Hall of Fame? No. Jim Rice was a product of his environment greatly benefitting from Fenway Park. Below will clearly demonstrate why Rice is NOT a Hall of Famer. You’ll notice that there is no statistic for fear factor; because that’s one of the most ridiculous arguments I’ve heard in a very long time. Honestly, it sounds like a drunken Mel Gibson rant.

Looking at Rice’s numbers, we find that he has an OPS of .920 at home, while a .789 road OPS. Rice, who combined managed a career OPS of .854 was merely .110 points better than his league average. Yes, that’s certainly above average, but not exactly Hall of Fame worthy. His adjusted OPS+ is 124, good for 177^th all time. Does 177th predicate a Hall of Famer at a skill position where numbers are expected to be inflated? Jim Rice is a tremendously talented player, certainly one of the best players in the Hall of the Very Good. However, he is not a Hall of Famer.

In fact, Rice against Hall of Famers was a shell of his career numbers against the best.  For his career, Rice hit .298/.352/.502, while against Hall of Fame pitchers he hit .253/.295/.463, hardly dominating, and hardly evoking the fear supposedly there.  We often gauge our own ability by measuring against the best.  Against the best, Rice came up small.  
 
Rice is now a Hall of Famer while the other feared player, the one who obliterates Rice on every level, is again ignored by the Veterans Committee.  
 
Jim Rice – 
.298/.352/.502 
128 OPS+
.854  OPS
.744 League OPS
 
Dick Allen – 
.292/.378/.534  
156
.912 OPS 
.707 League OPS
 
Jim Rice is hardly the first player who was selected to the Hall of Fame who should not have been, however, he is most assuredly one of the worst choices in recent memory.  It’s as if the Baseball Writers of America have an agenda, and the fans are subject to their will.  For years we had to watch Goose Gossage suffer, while we now watch Dick Allen and Bert Blyleven suffer while hacks like Bruce Sutter and Jim Rice make the Hall of Fame.    Yet it appears the writers control the fate of these men in their uninformed hands.  
 
Allow me to be one of the many who calls for a massive overhaul to the voting for the Hall of Fame.  Allow the writers their vote, but have a panel of truly learned individuals a vote:  Bill James, Rob Neyer, Keith Law and others who truly understand how to evaluate a player objectively.  Having the writers allow their personal bias to affect their voting is an absolute joke.  The writer who didn’t vote for Rickey simply because “he wasn’t a Rickey guy” should be the first step of many to having a healthy portion of the baseball writers’ votes stripped.

2009 Top 50 Prospects

Well prospect season is officially here!  Baseball America has begun their top 10 for each team and Jonathan Mayo has released his top 50 list, with some MAJOR question marks.

2009 is really a 2 man show, with everyone else just kind of falling in line behind them.  It’s 2007’s first round all over again.  Price v. Wieters, the showdown.

1. David Price – LHP, Tampa Bay

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a player with such polish, stuff and command. In fact, Price has the ability to become the next Mark Prior, in that he’s incredibly good right away. He should contend for the Cy Young as early as 2009. Stuff wise, he’s not rivaled in the minors.

2. Matt Wieters – C, Baltimore

Like Price, Wieters’ ability is not rivaled in the minors. He has a package of tools usually reserved for corner outfielders. He has contact, discipline and power. Oh yeah, and one of the best throwing arms around behind the plate and the ability to call a terrific game.

3. Madison Bumgarner – LHP, San Francisco

Bumgarner certainly deterred a lot of doubters in his secondary stuff in his first full season in the minors, winning the pitching triple crown. His fastball is plus-plus and his secondary stuff has developed faster than expected. His real tests will come in the upper minors when hitters won’t be simply blown away as easily. However, he already looks like a steal considering his price.

4. Rick Porcello – RHP, Detroit

Porcello versus Bumgarner is sure to be a great debate as both prepsters were taken early in 2007. Porcello struggled with his strikeout rate, but attributed it to working on his secondary stuff. His stuff is fantastic, and at 19 years old dominated High A. He has drawn Dwight Gooden like comparisons, which are quite fair.

5. Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta

One of the better outfield prospects to come around in quite some time. He is a true 5 tool player with a work ethic to boot. He has 30/30 ability with Gold Glove caliber defense.

6. Mike Moustakas – 3B, Kansas City

7. Tommy Hanson – RHP, Altanta

8. Cameron Maybin – OF, Florida

9. Travis Snider – OF/DH, Toronto

10. Nefatali Feliz – RHP, Texas

11. Colby Rasmus – OF, St. Louis

12. Brian Matusz – LHP, Baltimore

13. Buster Posey – C, San Francisco

14. Lars Anderson – 1B, Boston

15. Andrew McCutchen – OF, Pittsburgh

16. Chris Tillman – RHP, Baltimore

17. Brett Anderson – RHP, Oakland

18. Trevor Cahill – RHP, Oakland

19. Elvis Andrus – SS, Texas

20. Mat Gamel – 3B, Milwaukee

21. Alcides Escobar – SS, Milwaukee

22. Jarrod Parker – RHP, Arizona

23. Tim Beckham – SS, Tampa Bay

24. Wade Davis – RHP, Tampa Bay

25. Matt LaPorta – OF, Cleveland

26. Dayan Viciedo – 3B, Chicago White Sox

27. Lou Marson – C, Philadephia

28. Dexter Fowler – OF, Colorado

29. Nick Adenhart – RHP, Los Angeles Angels

30. Eric Hosmer – 1B, Kansas City

31. Mike Stanton – OF, Florida

32. Carlos Triunfel – SS, Seattle

33. Adrian Cardenas – SS, Oakland

34. Jeremy Hellickson – RHP, Tampa Bay

35. Tim Alderson – RHP, San Francisco

36. Phillippe Aumont – RHP, Seattle

37. Justin Smoak – 1B, Texas

38. Angel Villalona – 1B, San Francisco

39. Carlos Carrasco - RHP, Philadelphia

40. Jordan Schafer – OF, Atlanta

41. Austin Jackson – OF, New York Yankees

42. Brett Wallace – 3B, St. Louis

43. Hank Conger – C, Los Angeles Angels

44. Matt Dominguez – 3B, Florida

45. Jeremy Jeffress – RHP, Milwaukee

46. Freddie Freeman – 1B, Atlanta

47. Fernado Martinez – OF, New York Mets

48. Chris Marrero – 1B, Washington

49. Junichi Tazawa – RHP, Boston

50. Kyle Drabek – RHP, Philadelphia

A World Series Breakdown: Phillies vs. Rays

For 15 years, Phillies fans, including myself, have been anxiously awaiting the World Series, with a chance to avenge the ’93 loss. This year provides the best opportunity to bring a championship to a city so desperately craving one they fight each other over it. This team is a homegrown masterpiece, artfully built by Mike Arbuckle and company with first round draft picks oozing out of the fold and on to the diamond. Of the starting 8 regulars, 5 have come through the farm system while 2/4’s of the playoff rotation and 3/5’s of the regular season rotation are products of the farm system. The Phillies boast one of the 5 best offenses in baseball, solid pitching with incredible pitching in the first 2 slots and the best bullpen in baseball. Combine all of that, and there’s no shock the Phillies are representing the National League in the World Series.

Their opponent this year is the media darling of baseball, gaining fan fare and bandwagoners along the way. The media and casual fans have consistently given the Tampa Bay Rays a ceiling, when there clearly is none. While the Phillies have built their team from the draft and international signings, the Rays have certainly done that as well. Most of their rotation and position players were all highly drafted players, or once highly thought of prospects who are rebounding in Tampa. The Rays’ rise to ascension was thought of as a surprise by many, but to the educated baseball fans who predicted their rise this season, it really is not that big of a stretch to see them this far.

This series graces the fans with some incredible names and some incredible names down the line. We’re apt to see the future of baseball right now. The Phillies are clearly the most recognizable team outside of the Yankees and Red Sox, and will be for the next 3 or 4 years, while the Rays represent the future. It is in this showdown, that the showcase and future of baseball will be represented. It is the present versus the future, and the winner takes home the crown.

Positional breakdown analysis:

Catcher – Carlos Ruiz (Phi) vs. Dioner Navarro (TB)

Ruiz, a traditionally light hitting catcher with solid receiving skills has been almost a blip this postseason, while Navaro has matched him with ineptness. Both players sport an OPS below 690, but have provided good defense. The edge has to go to Navaro for being the lesser of two evils, though it’s not saying much….

Edge: Rays (1)

1^st Base – Ryan Howard (Phi) vs. Carlos Pena (TB)

This is a somewhat even matchup with Howard’s struggles in the postseason. However, Howard provides the superior OPS and power to hit it out of any ballpark, including the homer dome in Tampa. Pena is the superior glove, but the difference in their bat makes the world of difference.

Edge: Phillies (1)

2^nd Base – Chase Utley (Phi) vs. Akinori Iwamura (TB)

Without question, this could be the biggest discrepancy in talent. Utley is the best second basemen in the league, and is on the path to becoming the best hitting second basemen in the history of the game. Utley provides the superior bat, superior glove and superior ability on the basepaths.

Edge: Phillies (2)

Shortstop – Jimmy Rollins (Phi) vs. Jason Bartlett (TB)

It is truly rare when Jason Bartlett isn’t the superior defender in a head to head matchup. Bartlett is a glove, no bat shortstop in the mold of the players of the 1950’s. Rollins is the new age shortstop, combining power, speed, defense and baserunning ability and overall team leadership. The adage goes “When Jimmy hits, the Phillies win.”

Edge: Phillies (3)

Third base – Pedro Feliz/Greg Dobbs (Phi) vs. Evan Longoria (TB)

If the battle at second base isn’t the biggest talent discrepancy, this sure is. Feliz is a known hacker with first pitch tendencies, but an incredible glove while Greg Dobbs is a masher against righties with below average defensive abilities. Evan Longoria is one of the best young players in the league, providing contact and power with a HOF skillset.

Edge: Rays (2)

Left Field – Pat Burrell (Phi) vs. Carl Crawford (TB)

When talking about left fielders, there are two types of players: the slower power threat and the modern contact speed player. There could not be a bigger disparity in abilities than there is in left field. Burrell provides adequate contact ability, massive power and awful defense, while Crawford provides wonderful contact ability, little to no power and one of the best defenses in the field. Crawford has really been incredibly mediocre in the postseason though, sporting a below 800 OPS, while Burrell has flourished, giving him the edge, slightly.

Edge: Burrell (4)

Centerfield- Shane Victorino (Phi) vs. B.J Upton

Unlike in left field, Victorino and Upton are essentially the same player, with slight advantages here and there. Upton battled a shoulder injury all year, which affected his power. Victorino is the superior defender and baserunner, but Upton is the superior bat. Both players have also been the team’s best hitter in the postseason, each sporting an OPS over 1000.

Edge: Rays, barely (3)

Right Field – Jayson Werth (Phi) vs. Gabe Gross (TB)

One of the biggest surprises this season has been the reemergence of Jayson Werth. He has hit for power, speed, contact and clutchness for the Phillies. Gross has been a fine player for the Rays, but is nothing more than an average, solid bench player.

Edge: Phillies (5)

Designated Hitter – Undetermined vs. Cliff Floyd/Willie Aybar

Since the Phillies have no primary DH, the edge has to go to the platoon in Tampa. There has been some speculation about who the Phillies will use, with Chris Coste assumed in Game 1 and a likely scenario to use Greg Dobbs the rest of the series. It is important for the Phillies to break up their lefties if they do opt to go for Dobbs as the DH.

Edge: Rays (4)

Starting Pitching, rumored –

Cole Hamels (Phi) vs. Scott Kazmir (TB)

In a battle of the top two prep lefties from 2002, the Hamels/Kazmir showdown should truly be a pitching matchup for the ages. Hamels has been one of the 5 best pitchers in the league this year, and should finish third in Cy Young voting behind Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb. Kazmir has gone downhill the last few months of the season, losing control early. Hamels has been the most dominant pitcher of the postseason, allowing only 3 runs in 22 innings to the tune of a 1.23 era, while Kazmir has been significantly more mortal. Kazmir has given up 7 runs in 15.2 innings, sporting a 4.02 era. Kazmir is especially tough against lefties, offsetting the edge slightly.

Edge: Phillies (6)

Brett Myers (Phi) vs. James Shields (TB)

Big game James vs. the loose cannon himself, Brett Myers. The question here is how will the Phillies respond to the changeup of James Shields and if Brett Myers can control his emotions. The first pitch of the game will really go a long way to determining how the Phillies and Rays play. The Phillies boast an awful lot of left handed powers, while the Rays possess a very aggressive swinging team, which should help Brett Myers.

Edge: draw

Jamie Moyer (Phi) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (TB)

Moyer has been extremely awful this postseason, which could in fact be an understatement. However, unlike the Red Sox, the Rays are a free swinging team and is very young, which plays into Moyer’s game infinitely better. Sonnanstine has been a solid pitcher for the Rays all season, but boasts nothing spectacular.

Edge: Rays (5)

Joe Blanton (Phi) vs. Matt Garza (TB)

A big oaf vs. a big game pitcher. This is the biggest starting matchup discrepancy in the series. Blanton relies heavily on contact, while Garza is a true power pitcher. If good Joe shows up, like he did in Milwaukee, the Phillies have a chance, only if Garza is emotional, something he has been known to be. If the Phillies can get to him early, there is a chance in this game.

Edge: Rays (6)

Bullpen
Phillies vs. Rays

The Phillies’ bullpen was the best in baseball this season, and the emergence of Rick Vaughn, also known as Ryan Madson, has really help solidify the end of the game. Brad Lidge has been the best reliever in baseball this year, and nothing should change against the Rays, who are new to his 80 slider. The Rays have 3 lefties in the pen, which is something Charlie Manuel must prepare for when setting his lineup. The addition of David Price really makes the Rays’ pen better, but still falls to the Phillies.

Edge: Phillies (7)

There is no question why this series is expected to be close. The park factor, crowd factor and overall magnitude of the games could affect some more than others. However, this looks to be the best series we have had in quite some time.

Prediction: Phillies in 6

2009 Draft Top 10 prospects

Readers:

Thanks for the patience as I’ve had a lot going on personally. 2009 is quickly approaching, and as 2008 winds down, it’s never too early to start looking ahead. The 2009 MLB Rule 4 draft offers plenty of intriguing names, some familiar, some unfamiliar. This draft closely resembles 2007 where there are some consensus top picks and the rest can slot in according to teams’ boards.

Without further ado, the prospects.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State –

Unless Strasburg gets hurt, the Nationals balk at his price or he has a truly disastrous season, Strasburg is the clear number one player available. He has true front line stuff and could fit into any teams’ bullpen right now. He combines a heavy 4 seam fastball that is anywhere from 94-98 with a devastating slider, that is a true out pitch. His changeup projects as an above average pitch, though it isn’t thrown with enough consistency right now.

MLB Comparison – Mark Prior

2. Grant Green, SS USC –

No player has burst onto the scene and helped his stock more than Grant Green. Green had a solid sophomore season but a masterful season on the Cape, where he led in most offensive categories. He has the glovework, foot speed and overall athleticism to stay at shortstop in the bigs, and has a bat that profiles well as a number 2 hitter. Most of all, Green has shown a penchant for being a great team leader.

MLB Comparison – Troy Tulowitski

3. Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS –

Unlike other Texan phenoms of years past, Kershaw and Kazmir, Purke did not have a purely dominant showcase circuit. However, he did show flashes of brilliance on the mound, refined mechanics and a bulldog mentality. He combines a 93-96 mph fastball with a very heavy slurve and a fairly developed changeup. His mechanics are clean and his delivery is effortless. Purke has the best pure stuff of any prep pitcher in this draft and is second only to Strasburg in terms of raw ability on the mound.

MLB Comparison – Clayton Kershaw

4. Dustin Ackley, 1B/RF UNC –

One of the least publicized moves of the offseason was the Tommy John surgery had by Dustin Ackley. Ackley was forced to move from the outfield to first base because of throwing problems. With that fixed, Ackley offers teams a few options of where he is played. At the plate, Ackley provides very good plate coverage, the ability to hit the ball anywhere on the field and impressive power considering his size. With his athleticism, a move to second base isn’t out of the question.

MLB Comparison – Chase Utley

5. Alex White, RHP UNC -

Another very ready righthanded college pitcher, White provides a team with a very capable arm. He combines a very heavy sinker at 93-94 with a solid changeup and a solid, yet unspectacular, breaking ball. He has top of the rotation stuff and has pitched in plenty of big games in his young career. White will undoubtedly move very quickly if he is signed early. He has a chance to spend very little time in the minors.

MLB Comparison – Brandon Webb

Stay tuned for picks 6-10 coming this weekend and picks 10-15 coming after that!