Readers:
Thanks for the patience as I’ve had a lot going on personally. 2009 is quickly approaching, and as 2008 winds down, it’s never too early to start looking ahead. The 2009 MLB Rule 4 draft offers plenty of intriguing names, some familiar, some unfamiliar. This draft closely resembles 2007 where there are some consensus top picks and the rest can slot in according to teams’ boards.
Without further ado, the prospects.
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State –
Unless Strasburg gets hurt, the Nationals balk at his price or he has a truly disastrous season, Strasburg is the clear number one player available. He has true front line stuff and could fit into any teams’ bullpen right now. He combines a heavy 4 seam fastball that is anywhere from 94-98 with a devastating slider, that is a true out pitch. His changeup projects as an above average pitch, though it isn’t thrown with enough consistency right now.
MLB Comparison – Mark Prior
2. Grant Green, SS USC –
No player has burst onto the scene and helped his stock more than Grant Green. Green had a solid sophomore season but a masterful season on the Cape, where he led in most offensive categories. He has the glovework, foot speed and overall athleticism to stay at shortstop in the bigs, and has a bat that profiles well as a number 2 hitter. Most of all, Green has shown a penchant for being a great team leader.
MLB Comparison – Troy Tulowitski
3. Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS –
Unlike other Texan phenoms of years past, Kershaw and Kazmir, Purke did not have a purely dominant showcase circuit. However, he did show flashes of brilliance on the mound, refined mechanics and a bulldog mentality. He combines a 93-96 mph fastball with a very heavy slurve and a fairly developed changeup. His mechanics are clean and his delivery is effortless. Purke has the best pure stuff of any prep pitcher in this draft and is second only to Strasburg in terms of raw ability on the mound.
MLB Comparison – Clayton Kershaw
4. Dustin Ackley, 1B/RF UNC –
One of the least publicized moves of the offseason was the Tommy John surgery had by Dustin Ackley. Ackley was forced to move from the outfield to first base because of throwing problems. With that fixed, Ackley offers teams a few options of where he is played. At the plate, Ackley provides very good plate coverage, the ability to hit the ball anywhere on the field and impressive power considering his size. With his athleticism, a move to second base isn’t out of the question.
MLB Comparison – Chase Utley
5. Alex White, RHP UNC -
Another very ready righthanded college pitcher, White provides a team with a very capable arm. He combines a very heavy sinker at 93-94 with a solid changeup and a solid, yet unspectacular, breaking ball. He has top of the rotation stuff and has pitched in plenty of big games in his young career. White will undoubtedly move very quickly if he is signed early. He has a chance to spend very little time in the minors.
MLB Comparison – Brandon Webb
Stay tuned for picks 6-10 coming this weekend and picks 10-15 coming after that!
4 Comments
October 16, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Stephen Strasburg will be a great player. I am hoping to see him pitch in person if San Diego State visits Arizona State next spring… He really has electric stuff.
October 20, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Like this list. There may be some consideration for Donovan Tate in and around #5, but that will depend on how that organization’s draft philosophy, whether to draft upside with a toolsy OFer or more big-league ready guy in White. Nice work.
November 25, 2008 at 11:43 pm
What are you thoughts on Donovan Tate? If he is available for the Giants with the #6 pick, would he be a good selection that high? If you were the Giants’ scouting director who would you select?
November 26, 2008 at 12:03 am
I think Tate is overrated because of his tools, his pedigree and the overall fascination with athletes over baseball players. If anyone remembers last year, Isaac Galloway was the “best player available in the draft.”
I wouldn’t touch Tate with a 10 foot pole. It’s fine to gamble on players like that later on in the draft, but I look for baseball players first and athletes second. This isn’t the NFL, where specialty skills are able to be utilized. When I scout a player, I look at the player’s ceiling, but most importantly, his floor. It’s a given that plenty of the players drafted aren’t going to work out. For instance, I look at a pitcher like Stephen Strasburg; on the off chance he doesn’t pan out, his floor is elite closer. His fastball/slider combination is already as tight as Brad Lidge’s and he’s only 20.
As for Tate, his floor is Double A player, or pinch runner/defensive replacement. I haven’t seen his pitch recognition skills show me anything other than he guesses and is able to kill poor pitching. He looked average at best on the showcase circuit.
As for whom I would select. I’ll go with the assumption that these guys are off the board: Strasburg, Green, Ackley, White, Matzek. Honestly, I’d take Matt Purke. I like him a lot more than Matzek, and knowing the Giants’ propensity for developing prep pitching, I’d bring him on board in a heartbeat.
Other options would be Tate, just knowing Sabean; Crow, Scheppers, Kentrail Davis or a wild card, Jacob Turner. Teams often establish patterns in the draft and stick with them. The Giants have a much better ability to develop pitching than hitting, much like the Marlins. Having an advantage in that department allows trades for other prospects. Everyone talks about Cleveland’s depth, but they rarely develop their own prospects, just poach them.