For 15 years, Phillies fans, including myself, have been anxiously awaiting the World Series, with a chance to avenge the ’93 loss. This year provides the best opportunity to bring a championship to a city so desperately craving one they fight each other over it. This team is a homegrown masterpiece, artfully built by Mike Arbuckle and company with first round draft picks oozing out of the fold and on to the diamond. Of the starting 8 regulars, 5 have come through the farm system while 2/4’s of the playoff rotation and 3/5’s of the regular season rotation are products of the farm system. The Phillies boast one of the 5 best offenses in baseball, solid pitching with incredible pitching in the first 2 slots and the best bullpen in baseball. Combine all of that, and there’s no shock the Phillies are representing the National League in the World Series.
Their opponent this year is the media darling of baseball, gaining fan fare and bandwagoners along the way. The media and casual fans have consistently given the Tampa Bay Rays a ceiling, when there clearly is none. While the Phillies have built their team from the draft and international signings, the Rays have certainly done that as well. Most of their rotation and position players were all highly drafted players, or once highly thought of prospects who are rebounding in Tampa. The Rays’ rise to ascension was thought of as a surprise by many, but to the educated baseball fans who predicted their rise this season, it really is not that big of a stretch to see them this far.
This series graces the fans with some incredible names and some incredible names down the line. We’re apt to see the future of baseball right now. The Phillies are clearly the most recognizable team outside of the Yankees and Red Sox, and will be for the next 3 or 4 years, while the Rays represent the future. It is in this showdown, that the showcase and future of baseball will be represented. It is the present versus the future, and the winner takes home the crown.
Positional breakdown analysis:
Catcher – Carlos Ruiz (Phi) vs. Dioner Navarro (TB)
Ruiz, a traditionally light hitting catcher with solid receiving skills has been almost a blip this postseason, while Navaro has matched him with ineptness. Both players sport an OPS below 690, but have provided good defense. The edge has to go to Navaro for being the lesser of two evils, though it’s not saying much….
Edge: Rays (1)
1st Base – Ryan Howard (Phi) vs. Carlos Pena (TB)
This is a somewhat even matchup with Howard’s struggles in the postseason. However, Howard provides the superior OPS and power to hit it out of any ballpark, including the homer dome in Tampa. Pena is the superior glove, but the difference in their bat makes the world of difference.
Edge: Phillies (1)
2nd Base – Chase Utley (Phi) vs. Akinori Iwamura (TB)
Without question, this could be the biggest discrepancy in talent. Utley is the best second basemen in the league, and is on the path to becoming the best hitting second basemen in the history of the game. Utley provides the superior bat, superior glove and superior ability on the basepaths.
Edge: Phillies (2)
Shortstop – Jimmy Rollins (Phi) vs. Jason Bartlett (TB)
It is truly rare when Jason Bartlett isn’t the superior defender in a head to head matchup. Bartlett is a glove, no bat shortstop in the mold of the players of the 1950’s. Rollins is the new age shortstop, combining power, speed, defense and baserunning ability and overall team leadership. The adage goes “When Jimmy hits, the Phillies win.”
Edge: Phillies (3)
Third base – Pedro Feliz/Greg Dobbs (Phi) vs. Evan Longoria (TB)
If the battle at second base isn’t the biggest talent discrepancy, this sure is. Feliz is a known hacker with first pitch tendencies, but an incredible glove while Greg Dobbs is a masher against righties with below average defensive abilities. Evan Longoria is one of the best young players in the league, providing contact and power with a HOF skillset.
Edge: Rays (2)
Left Field – Pat Burrell (Phi) vs. Carl Crawford (TB)
When talking about left fielders, there are two types of players: the slower power threat and the modern contact speed player. There could not be a bigger disparity in abilities than there is in left field. Burrell provides adequate contact ability, massive power and awful defense, while Crawford provides wonderful contact ability, little to no power and one of the best defenses in the field. Crawford has really been incredibly mediocre in the postseason though, sporting a below 800 OPS, while Burrell has flourished, giving him the edge, slightly.
Edge: Burrell (4)
Centerfield- Shane Victorino (Phi) vs. B.J Upton
Unlike in left field, Victorino and Upton are essentially the same player, with slight advantages here and there. Upton battled a shoulder injury all year, which affected his power. Victorino is the superior defender and baserunner, but Upton is the superior bat. Both players have also been the team’s best hitter in the postseason, each sporting an OPS over 1000.
Edge: Rays, barely (3)
Right Field – Jayson Werth (Phi) vs. Gabe Gross (TB)
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the reemergence of Jayson Werth. He has hit for power, speed, contact and clutchness for the Phillies. Gross has been a fine player for the Rays, but is nothing more than an average, solid bench player.
Edge: Phillies (5)
Designated Hitter – Undetermined vs. Cliff Floyd/Willie Aybar
Since the Phillies have no primary DH, the edge has to go to the platoon in Tampa. There has been some speculation about who the Phillies will use, with Chris Coste assumed in Game 1 and a likely scenario to use Greg Dobbs the rest of the series. It is important for the Phillies to break up their lefties if they do opt to go for Dobbs as the DH.
Edge: Rays (4)
Starting Pitching, rumored –
Cole Hamels (Phi) vs. Scott Kazmir (TB)
In a battle of the top two prep lefties from 2002, the Hamels/Kazmir showdown should truly be a pitching matchup for the ages. Hamels has been one of the 5 best pitchers in the league this year, and should finish third in Cy Young voting behind Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb. Kazmir has gone downhill the last few months of the season, losing control early. Hamels has been the most dominant pitcher of the postseason, allowing only 3 runs in 22 innings to the tune of a 1.23 era, while Kazmir has been significantly more mortal. Kazmir has given up 7 runs in 15.2 innings, sporting a 4.02 era. Kazmir is especially tough against lefties, offsetting the edge slightly.
Edge: Phillies (6)
Brett Myers (Phi) vs. James Shields (TB)
Big game James vs. the loose cannon himself, Brett Myers. The question here is how will the Phillies respond to the changeup of James Shields and if Brett Myers can control his emotions. The first pitch of the game will really go a long way to determining how the Phillies and Rays play. The Phillies boast an awful lot of left handed powers, while the Rays possess a very aggressive swinging team, which should help Brett Myers.
Edge: draw
Jamie Moyer (Phi) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (TB)
Moyer has been extremely awful this postseason, which could in fact be an understatement. However, unlike the Red Sox, the Rays are a free swinging team and is very young, which plays into Moyer’s game infinitely better. Sonnanstine has been a solid pitcher for the Rays all season, but boasts nothing spectacular.
Edge: Rays (5)
Joe Blanton (Phi) vs. Matt Garza (TB)
A big oaf vs. a big game pitcher. This is the biggest starting matchup discrepancy in the series. Blanton relies heavily on contact, while Garza is a true power pitcher. If good Joe shows up, like he did in Milwaukee, the Phillies have a chance, only if Garza is emotional, something he has been known to be. If the Phillies can get to him early, there is a chance in this game.
Edge: Rays (6)
Bullpen
Phillies vs. Rays
The Phillies’ bullpen was the best in baseball this season, and the emergence of Rick Vaughn, also known as Ryan Madson, has really help solidify the end of the game. Brad Lidge has been the best reliever in baseball this year, and nothing should change against the Rays, who are new to his 80 slider. The Rays have 3 lefties in the pen, which is something Charlie Manuel must prepare for when setting his lineup. The addition of David Price really makes the Rays’ pen better, but still falls to the Phillies.
Edge: Phillies (7)
There is no question why this series is expected to be close. The park factor, crowd factor and overall magnitude of the games could affect some more than others. However, this looks to be the best series we have had in quite some time.
Prediction: Phillies in 6
1 Comment
October 20, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Hey good job breaking down the series.
As a Rays’ fan, I think you don’t give Aki enough respect but I’ll let Aki’s play speak for itself. I’m really interested to see who Joe Madden decides to start on the mound for game one etc. Your prediction seems pretty likely though Garza should be ready for game three up in Philadelphia.
Either way I’m really excited to see two young and talented teams go head to head for the world championship. These teams might be unknown to most baseball fans but they should provide a great match-up for true baseball lovers.