The NFL Draft is presently going on, which means we are less than 2 months away from the baseball draft. This year has a lot of intriguing names, and some definite future stars. However, it also appears to be one of the weakest drafts in recent memory, with clear tiered delineation. It should definitely be a fantastic year for players to receive a fair amount of money, as the 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the worst this decade, possibly challenging 2003 for that dubious distinction.
The big story entering the draft season is how much money will it take to sign Stephen Strasburg. The answer, we will find out, is a lot.
1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State
The only way this move doesn’t happen is if the bonus demands by Scott Boras are exorbitant. Strasburg is easily the best pitching prospect since Mark Prior, combining a 97-101 mph fastball with an absolutely devastating slider. I compare him quite often to Brad Lidge with a better changeup and makeup. He has the stuff and polish to make fewer than 20 minor league starts before reaching the show.
2. Seattle Mariners – Dustin Ackley, OF/INF UNC
Ackley, simply put, is the best hitter in the country. He has an incredibly short, compact stroke that shows power to all fields, and translates well to any park. I’ve often compared Ackley to a young Chase Utley, and feel he could handle the move over to second base to make him an even more valuable player. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he will be an asset no matter where he plays on the diamond.
3. San Diego Padres – Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley HS
In many scouts’ eyes, Matzek is the better pitcher between he, Purke and Miller. I disagree with that statement, but the Padres are no strangers to kowtowing to the general consensus, and cost will most assuredly be an issue. Matzek is a fairly local kid, who should move more quickly than many other prepsters because of his overall polish. A hitter here is possible as well, but given the void of youth in their system, I expect them to go heavy prep.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Grant Green, SS USC
The Pirates have shown a penchant for going best player available, specifically college ranked, in 2 out of the last 3 years, with Daniel Moskos the lone exception. Green will remind scouts a lot of Troy Tulowitzki combining size, power and fielding ability. He rebounded from a pretty terrible start to the year, and has shown the skill that made scouts drool at the Cape. He has a long swing, something the Pirates coaching staff will have to keep in check to avoid prolonged slumps.
5. Baltimore Orioles – Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS
With Purke in the system, the Orioles likely take the reign as top pitching depth in baseball. Purke shows flashes of absolute dominance with an upper 90’s fastball and a slurve that ranges anywhere from 79-82 mph. Some scouts worry about his mechanics as he throws across his body, but his leg position and shoulder position offset any of that. He should move extremely quickly. His only weakness has been inconsistency, something I expect to change.
6. San Francisco Giants- Shelby Miller, RHP Brownwood HS
This pick would certainly be the first surprise of the draft, but the way Miller has thrown in recent weeks definitely make this a legitimate pick. The Giants have never shied away from somewhat raw prepsters, and almost always reap the rewards of their risk. Few prognosticators, myself excluded, were incredibly high on Madison Bumgarner in 2007, but the Giants saw the potential and have arguably the 2nd best pitching prospect in baseball right now. Miller is hitting 98 mph with developing secondary stuff, and is reminiscent of 2002 Giants pick, Matt Cain.
7. Atlanta Braves – Donovan Tate, OF Cartersville HS
This would be the ideal scenario for the Braves, as they covet toolsly players from Georgia. Tate shows true 5 tool potential, but is incredibly raw from a baseball standpoint. Tate will be a tough sign as he is a 2 sport athlete who is committed to UNC, which tends to keep its recruits. I expect Tate to move slowly through the system as he relies almost exclusively on athletic ability versus baseball ability, but the Braves have good luck with players fitting this mold.
8. Cincinnati Reds – Alex White, RHP UNC
White entered the season as the 2nd or 3rd best prospect, but has shown an awful lot of inconsistency, coupled with extremely high bonus demands. White is a sinkerball pitcher with mid 90’s velocity, something that fits in very well in Great American Ballpark. He has one of the lowest floors of any of the players in the draft, but also a fairly low ceiling. He projects as a number 2 starter on a great team, or a number 1 starter on a marginal team.
9. Detroit Tigers – Aaron Crow, RHP Ft. Worth Cats
Another year, another high bonus for Detroit, as Crow’s demands will likely be in line with his 2008 ones. Crow has a lot of supporters and a lot of doubters, so this pick is likely boom or bust. He combines a mid 90’s fastball with an above average breaking ball. There are some major hitches in his mechanics which Tigers brass will likely have to correct, as it is a sign of some major elbow issues ahead.
10. Washington Nationals – Luke Bailey, C Troup County HS
I expect the Nats to go for the best, signable player here after spending millions on signing Strasburg. Bailey is one of the rare prep catchers who has a chance to stay behind the plate. He shows a lot of contact skills with developing power.
11. Colorado Rockies – Kyle Gibson, RHP Missouri
In terms of numbers, Gibson is not too far behind Strasburg, but has major mechanical issues to account for. The Rockies have never shied away from these issues, and tend to overlook many shortcomings and only look at the pros of a player. Gibson likely has a few years of dominance before a major injury, unless his delivery is completely reworked. He is a power pitcher with fairly good groundball tendancies and should fit in well at Coors.
12. Kansas City Royals – Mike Minor, LHP Vanderbilt
On stuff and ability alone, this might be a bit of an overdraft; however, Minor should move faster than anyone in this draft, Strasburg included. He is as close to a “can’t miss prospect” as there is, as he commands all of his pitches, and throws them for strikes.
13. Oakland Athletics – Rich Poythress, 1B Georgia
This has to be Oakland’s ideal scenario, as Poythress is an absolute monster at the plate. He looks a lot like 2008 first rounder Justin Smoak, combining power and patience. Poythress would ideally be ready when Giambi’s contract expires, giving them an internal option at a power position. He might be the most steady and ready bat in this draft.
14. Texas Rangers – Rex Brothers, LHP Lipscomb
His velocity is way up, as is his performance. The Rangers are in the best shape of probably any team is baseball with the best farm system. Brothers is a definite luxury pick, but has one of the highest boom or bust potentials of any player. He is hitting 97-99 mph, and if he doesn’t pan out as a starter, shows the velocity and secondary stuff necessary to close.
15. Cleveland Indians – Tim Wheeler, OF Sacramento State
Wheeler should remind Indians fan of current centerfielder Grady Sizemore. He has great power and speed, with solid instincts. He projects more to left field than center and with his speed has great range. He might be a longer term project having faced weaker pitching throughout his college career, but shows a great eye.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Leake, RHP Arizona State
Leake has been a recognizable name for a number of years, but has really started dominating in his junior season. He is a bit undersized, but has very projectable stuff, and is tremendously polished. Arizona’s pitching depth has taken a major step backward, and Leake will help stabilize it rather quickly.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bobby Borchering, INF Bishop Verot HS
Gaining the extra 1st round pick when losing Orlando Hudson allows the Dbacks to take a raw hitter with ridiculous power and try to develop him. Borchering has tremendous size at 6’4” and projects as either a shaky third basemen or a very solid first basemen. His swing is very long and has some flaws, but the raw tools are there.
18. Florida Marlins- Zach Wheeler, RHP East Paulding HS
The Marlins have shown a penchant to target prepsters and Wheeler has command of 3 pitches right now. He doesn’t fit the Marlins typical boom or bust prep pick, but should move quickly through their system.
19. Cardinals – Andy Oliver, LHP Oklahoma State
The Cardinals almost always go safe pick, and Oliver is no exception. He has had a rather poor start to the season, but still shows above average stuff and command. He is most notable for his lawsuit against the NCAA, but make no mistake, he has definite top of the rotation stuff.
20. Blue Jays – Brett Jackson, OF Cal
Jackson’s strikeouts are really a cause for alarm, as he’s obviously doing it with aluminum. Apart from his contact skills problem, he has shown an ability to get on base and fairly impressive power. He does show very good baserunning skills, and projects to a 20 stolen base type player in the big league. He reminds of Jayson Werth.
21. Houston Astros – Mychal Givens, SS Plant HS
The Astros are one of the few teams who will likely give Givens the chance to play every day as he shows tremendous athletic ability, and above all, Wade loves his athletes. At the plate, Givens’ swing is incredibly long and his pitch recognition is incredibly subpar. He has great speed on the basepaths and a very strong arm at shortstop. As a pitcher, he throws in the upper 90’s, but his arm slot makes him project more to a closer than a starter.
22. Minnesota Twins – Jacob Turner, RHP Westminster Christian
The Twins are a team who doesn’t deviate from their draft board oten, and at this point, Turner is the best available player. He throws in the mid 90’s with a very solid 12-6 curveball and a developing change. He entered the spring as the top right handed prepster, and has done nothing to change that, but he has been passed by a number of players truly dominating. His mechanics are pretty solid and projects to a great number 3 starter.
23. Chicago White Sox – Max Stassi, C Yuba City HS
Stassi is an extremely compact catcher with a power swing. Behind the plate, he has a fantastic arm and should be able to gun down most baserunners. As with most prep catchers, the White Sox will need to be patient with him.
24. Los Angeles Angels – Tanner Scheppers, RHP Indy League
The Angels are reeling from injury and tragedy and the glut of pitching depth they had has been evaporated, and then some. Scheppers was one of the 3 best pitchers in the 2008 draft, but his shoulder injury really affected him and he ultimately did not sign. He will need to show that he is fully recovered, and if so, he combines a mid 90’s fastball with a dominating split and breaker.
25. Los Angeles Angels – Evertt Williams, OF McCallum HS
Williams is a very toolsy athlete who the Angels love. He shows great contact skills, and developing power and defense. He is marginally undersized, but the Angels have never shied away from conventional thoughts.
26. Milwaukee Brewers – Kendal Volz, RHP Baylor
Volz has shown diminished strikeout stuff with increased walks, so this is a definite cause for alarm. However, the Brewers desperately need pitching and Volz should be able to move quickly, especially if he returns to form. He has a very projectable frame at 6’5” and solid mechanics.
27. Seattle Mariners – Brad Boxberger, RHP USC
No player has shot up the boards faster than Boxberger. He has a solid frame, good velocity and good secondary stuff. His command fluctuates, hut has shown an ability to dominate at the start of the season. He will likely remind Mariners fans of a healthier, more sturdy Brandon Morrow.
28. Boston Red Sox – Kentrail David, OF Tennessee
Davis is expected to have the second or third highest bonus demand in the draft behind Strasburg and Ackley. However, his performance in 2009 really is worrisome. He is short and stocky, but powerful, much in the mode of Kirby Puckett. He has incredibly quick hands, and on a team where he can be a complement, not the star, could easily excel.
29. New York Yankees – Matt Graham, RHP Conroe HS
Graham was my top prepsters entering the spring, but he has really fallen off a cliff. He was a definite velocity first pitcher, hitting 95-97 regularly. However, his velocity is down to around 91, which makes me either worry about injury or be glad he’s dropped down to control his stuff, like Zach Greinke. He is a huge work in progress, but his leg movement and arm deception make him an intriguing pick, especially for a team who can afford luxury. At the same spot, I’d take Graham over Cole.
30. Tampa Bay Rays – Ben Tootle, RHP Jacksonville State
Picking this low is certainly surprising for them, but they still get a potential star—go figure. Tootle will fit right in, and move quickly through the system, either as a starter or closer. Personally, I think he projects better as a closer with filthy velocity and could debut as early as the year he is drafted.
31. Chicago Cubs – Scott Bittle, RHP Ole Miss
A lot of people aren’t as high on Bittle as they are on other relievers this year. However, I disagree whole heartedly. The Kelly Gregg experiment has been a colossal failure and when Carlos Marmol takes over the closer duty, there is going to be a void for 8th inning player with strikeout ability. Bittle should spend very little time in the minors and be able to help out a club who is built to win now, win.
32. Colorado Rockies – Matt Davidson, 3B Yucaipa HS
The Rockies can’t pass up Davidson’s special bat. He shows power to all fields and is a solid defender at third. He has advanced polish at the plate and has shot up draft boards. He will be a tough sign, but he’s too good to let play for SC.
1 Comment
June 5, 2009 at 5:40 am
[...] Jason Stoffell, RHP, Arizona Minorleagueball.com #3 (4/28): Luke Bailey, C, LaGrange HS USCTrojans31 (4/26): Mychal Givens, RHP, Plant HS Minorleagueball.com #2 (4/21): Mychal Givens, RHP, Plant [...]