We’re at less than 24 hours to the draft and my blood is flowing. There are more storylines in this draft than I can ever remember and more uncertainty over the top picks than ever before. There are bound to be some stars, and some jobs lost over these picks and a franchise’s entire direction could change instantly. Without further ado, this is how I see the first round going.
1. Washington Nationals – Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State
Simply put, the best prospect in a very long time to the worst team. He’ll be worth every cent.
2. Seattle Mariners – Dustin Ackley, OF/INF UNC
There’s talk of them being higher on Crow based on signability, but in the end, the team needs a true rebuild. That said, I’d still take Purke here and get the bats later on in the draft. I’ve said it for a few months now; I can see Ackley moving to second if his arm strength is fully rebounded. He has the quickness and the lateral movement to handle a shift over, which makes him that much more valuable. To me, he’s basically a younger Chase Utley.
3. San Diego Padres – Donovan Tate, OF Cartersville HS
The talk has been about Minor versus Tate, but in my mind, that’s the Padres way of driving down Tate’s price. Personally, I’m not sold on him, but for the weakest system in baseball, adding the best potential 5 tool player makes a lot of sense.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Tony Sanchez, C Boston College
Bad Pirates management continues to rear its head here. Unless the Pirates opt to strongly break slot later on in the draft, this is another typical poor choice. Sanchez should be starting next year, but doesn’t offer much else.
5. Baltimore Orioles – Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS
Baltimore could easily go Grant Green here as their system is loaded with arms. Wheeler should be one of the most signable talents in the draft and offers another solid arm into the mix. He could be one of the first signs this year.
6. San Francisco Giants- Shelby Miller, RHP Brownwood HS
I was one of, if not the, first to have this pick here and I’m not changing. Though the Giants have gone position player recently, this is their M.O. prep pitcher with dominating stuff who is a bit raw. Next to Strasburg, Miller has the best stuff in this draft. He is a lot like a right handed Madison Bumgarner, the best pitching prospect in the minors.
7. Atlanta Braves – Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley HS
Matzek has tremendous stuff and tremendous inconsistency, something that is very scary in a high schooler and doesn’t bode well for future success. The Braves system is fairly anemic with pitching, especially after acquiring Nate McClouth. Matzek should be the fastest to arrive of all the prepsters.
8. Cincinnati Reds – Alex White, RHP UNC
Talk about inconsistency galore with flashes of brilliance. White could wind up as either a front line starter or back of the bullpen closer. He has been playing with a splitter this year, which I actually think will help him in the long run. White is a power sinker pitching, much like Jake Peavy, which plays out well in Great American Ballpark. If the Reds can sign him, he could step into the rotation in 2011.
9. Detroit Tigers – Jacob Turner, RHP Westminster Christian Academy
Turner is undoubtedly the top prep righty in this draft, but that comes with a mild price. He’s not in the same mold as Rick Porcello, but shows a mid 90’s fastball with a solid 12-6 curve and a very solid change. Like Porcello though, the Tigers could immediately assign him to High A ball and he will succeed.
10. Washington Nationals – Mike Minor, LHP Vanderbilt
Acting GM Mike Rizzo says that the team has money to spend here, which I don’t doubt, but I don’t expect them to break the bank for anyone either. Minor is a typical college lefty who should absolutely fly through the Nats’ system.
11. Colorado Rockies – Kyle Gibson, RHP Missouri
In terms of numbers, Gibson is not too far behind Strasburg, but has major mechanical issues to account for and a stress fracture in his forearm—ouch! The Rockies desperately need pitching behind Aaron Cook and Gibson is a fair choice.
12. Kansas City Royals – Grant Green, SS USC
Green has been all over the draft board this year, from numbers 1 through the supplemental round. Kansas City hasn’t been afraid to spend big in the draft and Green gives the team a legit up the middle option who compares between Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria. The selection also allows the team to move Moustakas to a position where he has a chance to excel either at first or left field.
13. Oakland Athletics – Rich Poythress, 1B Georgia
Oakland is one of the biggest wildcards in the first round as there are a million scenarios they could go with. Their offense so far has been rather anemic and filled with incredible disappointment. Granted their system is loaded with 1B/DH types, Poythress is too powerful to overlook.
14. Texas Rangers – Matt Purke, LHP Klein HS
Apparently Purke is looking for Porcello money, which is just plain silly, but a somewhat hometown discount has to be enticing to Purke’s people. I’d take Purke at number 2 overall, so to get him this low is an absolute steal. He reminds me of a combination of Scott Kazmir and Clayton Kershaw.
15. Cleveland Indians – Tanner Scheppers, RHP Independent League
Scheppers is one of the best talents in the draft, but shoulder injuries are no laughing matter. If he’s fully recovered, he’s an ace in the making, but that’s a big if. He’s had velocity back this spring, but you just never know with these types of injuries.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks – Mike Leake, RHP Arizona State
Leake has been a recognizable name for a number of years, but has really started dominating in his junior season. He is a bit undersized, but has very projectable stuff, and is tremendously polished. Arizona’s pitching depth has taken a major step backward, and Leake will help stabilize it rather quickly.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bobby Borchering, INF Bishop Verot HS
Gaining the extra 1st round pick when losing Orlando Hudson allows the Dbacks to take a raw hitter with ridiculous power and try to develop him. Borchering has tremendous size at 6’4” and projects as either a shaky third basemen or a very solid first basemen. His swing is very long and has some flaws, but the raw tools are there.
18. Florida Marlins- Chad James, RHP Oklahoma HS
A typical Marlins pick choosing a prepster with lights out stuff. I hear James is looking for a pretty big bonus as well, but the Marlins have shown a penchant to get things done, within reason.
19. Cardinals – Mike Trout, CF Millville HS
The Cardinals have a penchant for choosing the gritty, tough players and Trout fits that mold rather well. In another column, I wrote about the return of the centerfielder, and Trout is the truest centerfielder available. He is a mirror clone of Aaron Rowand with an actual throwing arm.
20. Blue Jays – Tim Wheeler, OF Sacramento State
Wheeler is the best power/speed guy in the draft and the Blue Jays desperately need both. Wheeler should immediately slot into the left field mold allowing all of the Jays a shot at returning to their natural positions.
21. Houston Astros – Everett Williams, OF McCallum HS
All outfielders—all the time. That’s the Astros’ draft plans this year, and to get the local guy makes it that much better for them. The Astros system is amongst, if not the worst in baseball. Williams immediately moves into the upper echelon of prospects and projects as a solid fielder and hitter.
22. Minnesota Twins – Chad Jenkins, RHP Kennesaw State
A player who should have gone earlier based on talent but falls based on the law of attrition. Jenkins has very reliable stuff and projects well into the fold. He combines low mileage with high quality stuff and enables the Twins a chance to add to their terrific young pitchers.
23. Chicago White Sox – Eric Arnett, RHP Indiana
The White Sox have really bad pitching as evidenced by their aggressive pursuit of Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt. Arnett has shot up draft boards recently and might not even be around at this point, though history has shown that the late risers are often the fast fallers—see Shooter Hunt and Christian Friedrich last year.
24. Los Angeles Angels – Rex Brothers, LHP Lipscomb
Lipscomb has been another fast riser because of his absolutely filthy fastball, which plays around 98 to 99 mph. Personally, I see Brothers fitting in as a closer at the big league level, which the Angels could definitely use. Brian Fuentes has to really be considered a colossal disappointment and Brothers could help the team this year.
25. Angels – Aaron Crow, RHP Independent League
With 2 first round picks, the Angels can afford to take a gamble on Crow who plummeted based on incredible demands yet again.
26. Milwaukee Brewers – Jared Mitchell, OF LSU
Athletic, fast and another potential 5 tooler to add to an aging Brewers outfield. He is mildly reminiscent of current centerfielder Mike Cameron.
27. Seattle Mariners – Matt Hobgood, RHP Norco HS
Another player that is all over the board, as high as 12 and as low as sandwich. The Mariners need everything, bats, arms, maybe even some legs. Hobgood is a power arm who should be fairly signable after shelling out millions for Ackley.
28. Red Sox – Max Stassi, C Yuba City HS
The Sox haven’t shied away from taking who they perceive to be the best player available in recent years, and nothing will change this year. Stassi has a straight power swing in an incredibly compact body that should be able to stay behind the plate. Jason Varitek isn’t getting any younger and there are no legit in house replacements.
29. New York Yankees – A.J Pollock, OF Notre Dame
Another team who often goes after the tough signs, but after getting burned by Gerrit Cole last year, the Yankees take a safer approach this year. The Yankees are aging much faster than anyone anticipated and their system is fairly void of talent in the outfield outside of Austin Jackson.
30. Tampa Bay Rays – Wil Myers, C Wesleyan Christian Academy
Word on the street is that the Rays desperately want a catcher. After passing on Buster Posey last year, the Rays opt to go for a need based pick instead of their typical best player available option. There are a lot of questions as to whether Myers can stay behind the plate, but his bat plays out anywhere on the diamond.
31. Chicago Cubs – Drew Storen, RHP Stanford
There is no doubt that the Cubs are built to win now, and their relievers simply aren’t getting it done. Carlos Marmol is his typical filthy self but Kevin Gregg has been awful. Storen is a lot like last year’s first round pick in Andrew Cashner in that he’s a college closer who could likely be an MLB starter; however, I see the Cubs keeping him as a reliever and giving him a call before the September 1 deadline as they make a playoff push.
32. Colorado Rockies – Brett Jackson, OF Cal
Jackson will remind a lot of Rockies players of Matt Holiday with more strikeouts. He has legit power with 30+ homer potential, but has never really put it together at the college level. The tools are there though and with the right coaching, will be an absolute masher.
