Though day 1 of the 2009 draft just ended, the casual fan has likely stopped paying attention. While teams frantically struggle to get Day 2, the real cream of the draft, prepared for, there is already plans to look ahead to 2010. Like 2009, 2010 figures to be very pitching heavy early and often as many of the top high school bats have signed early and often in the recent drafts. The 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the weakest in recent memories, serving as the meat between two of the best prospects ever in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, more on that later.
Looking ahead the Top 10 at the time of this writing are:
- 1. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP, LSU
While not in the league of former number 1 college pitching prospects Mark Prior, Jered Weaver, David Price or Stephen Strasburg, Ranaudo certainly is nothing to sneeze at. He has tremendous size at 6’7” with very heavy stuff. His fastball is in the low 90’s and his curve and change are developing as expected. His mechanics are clean and he slopes downwards towards home plate, much like Chris Young of the Padres. His only red flag is the tendinitis that cost him a number of starts as a freshman. If he shows that it was only a onetime injury, he profiles as a solid front of the rotation starter.
2. A.J. Cole – RHP, Oviedo H.S.
For those who follow tournaments and showcases, Cole’s name has been on the scene for quite some time. He is one of the top prep pitchers in recent memory and is poised to enter the Beckett/Porcello stratosphere. He shows very advanced stuff for his age working in a mid 90’s fastball with a true 9-3 slider in the low 80’s and a solid, yet developing change. Incredibly solid mechanics with a low ¾ arm slot that simply explodes the last 15 feet. He has a true power pitcher’s build at 6’4” with most of his mass at his lower body. A bona fide ace in the making. He should move incredibly quickly for a prepster. I expect him in a big league rotation no later than 21.
3. Brandon Workman – RHP, Texas
Seeing Workman’s name this high might really surprise people, but that’s how high I am on him. I was amongst the few Phillies fans seriously lobbying his signing, no matter what it took. Workman has a mid 90’s fastball and filthy breaking stuff. His build is very similar to Mark Prior at a solid 6’5”, 220 pounds. He pounds the bottom of the strike zone and pitches off of his fastball which sets up the breaking stuff. His mechanics do worry me a little bit as there is a clear pressure put on his shoulder, but the should be able to offset that with terrific leg movement and motion. He throws from a mid ¾ and has the Jake Peavy like sling throwing across his body.
4. Bryce Brentz – OF, Middle Tennessee State
Another name some might find a bit too high simply based on his level of competition, but one thing’s for sure—he can hit. Brentz led the NCAA in homers, average, slugging, and his 1.465 OPS is scary good. He is a two way player with a mid 90’s fastball on the mound, but make no mistake, he is a hitter. I expect him to find himself in right field where his cannon will serve as a legit weapon. His coming out party should be over the summer when he plays for Team USA. His only weakness, if you can call it that, is his moderate speed.
5. Drew Pomeranz – LHP, Ole Miss
Pomeranz is one of the players who really benefited from college instead of signing right out of high school. As a 12th round draft pick in 2007, Pomeranz had some velocity questions and most of all, mechanical questions. His velocity is never going to blow anyone away, often working around 89-92, but he offers an absolutely filthy putaway breaker. He throws a true slow 12-6 curveball in the Barry Zito mode, and also shows a below average changeup. Pomeranz is going to have to work on keeping his arm angle the same for all 3 of his pitches, something pro hitters will pick up on extremely early. It will be interesting to see him attempt to overcome days when he doesn’t have his best stuff.
6. Jarrett Parker – OF, Virginia
Parker might be the best 5 tool player in this draft, though that is a term that I personally loathe and find to be incredibly overused. Parker really came forward with an extremely impressive sophomore campaign and will look to capitalize on that with Team USA over the summer. He has extremely quick hands with an open stance that looks a lot like Chase Utley’s. He makes contact and waits on the ball extremely well and has some of the fastest hips I’ve ever scouted. In the field, he has terrific range and projects as a plus right-fielder. Parker has sneaky fast speed and has 30+ stolen base potential. He is presently 6’4”, 205, but has the frame to add on about 30 pounds of muscle and still keep the same speed. He really looks a lot like a left-handed version of Jayson Werth.
7. Deck McGuire – RHP, Georgia Tech
McGuire has an absolutely huge frame and it works to his favor when he pitches. His body is very similar to John Lackey, as is his stuff. He pitches down at 91-93, but has the build to add another 2-3 mph as he really grows into his enormous frame. He has two very solid breaking pitches with a tight dropping 78-80 slider and complements it with a 72-74 mph 11/5 curveball. He has a very solid changeup, but rarely uses it. Mechanically, he’s solid, but the range of motion in his legs needs to extend a number of degrees.
8. Casey Mulholland – RHP, Pendleton HS
Mulholland is another talented 2-way player who has a chance to really ascend into the top echelon of prospects. He has a very large frame and at 6’3” will have a great chance to add mass as he grows into his body. He has a loose delivery in the low 90’s with great movement, and complements it with a straight change and a hard breaking curve. His mechanics are inconsistent but show a lot of promise and poise. His leg movement is tremendous and extends himself around 105 degrees, but his arm movement is incredibly inconsistent. He alternates between a high ¾ delivery and over the top. His best movement is over the top, which a strong pitching coach should be able to nail into his head.
9. Mike McGee – OF, Florida State
And our third 2-way player in the top 9 makes his appearance now. McGee really broke out as a sophomore and surprised a number of people, including me. He projects as a left-fielder, first basemen or designated hitter type. He hits from an open stance and has quick hips and quick hands turning on the ball in a hurry. He shows power to all fields, though it’s likely to be more gap power in the majors. He sits back on the ball very well and has good contact skills, despite a near 1:1 K/BB ratio. I do worry about his contact level as he develops as a player, and I always have a bit of a concern with FSU players, as they rarely transition as well as you’d think. However, McGee and Posey do appear to be legit.
10. Matt Harvey – RHP, UNC
Entering 2009, Harvey was the consensus top prospect for the 2010 draft, but since getting onto campus in North Carolina he has regressed in every way possible. Harvey was mentioned in the same breath as Porcello, Parker and Bumgarner in 2007, but opted for college instead. He has a mid 90’s fastball, but loses his velocity quickly. His curve is right now his best pitch, showing a terrific break and his changeup. However, there are red flags galore with Harvey, and unless they’re corrected or amended, he’s going to fall much lower on this list. His stuff is wildly inconsistent and his changeup alludes him from inning to inning. Though he pounds down in the zone, his fastball can become extremely flat and hittable. His biggest question is attitude on the mound. The best ones have a bulldog demeanor and tighten up when they’re at their most vulnerable, while Harvey folds under pressure often. In my years of scouting, I can’t remember a player who went from being a blue chip high school prospect to someone who’s fighting to keep themselves in the top 10. Even with all of these knocks, if Harvey has a strong summer and junior season, he can easily see himself in the top 5.
Please note that if the Bryce Harper GED rumors are true and he enters the draft, he immediately slots into number 1 and everyone falls one level.
