A Moose in Cooperstown

Players are often overlooked when talking about greatness. Goose Gossage had to wait far too long to hear his name announced as a Hall of Fame inductee. He had to feel the utter shame and humiliation of watching Bruce Sutter be elected before him. Sutter is without question one of the 10 most suspect Hall of Fame inductees in the history of baseball. There are plenty of arguments about players who are eligible and have yet to be elected, Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven and Andre Dawson are the most immediately recognizable names. However, one name is always overlooked and that player is still active—Mike Mussina.

Some might argue that Mussina’s overall numbers are not Hall of Fame worthy. Without question, those people have failed to actually look at how truly dominating Mussina has been over his career, and continues to be. Currently, Mussina is 21^st all time in strikeouts, and should move into the top 20 in his next start and should pass Cy Young by the end of this season. If that’s not enough, Mussina has demonstrated considerable control over his career. Mussina has a better strikeout to walk ratio than the king of control, Greg Maddux.

We often talk about the best pitchers of this generation to be Clemens, Johnson, Schilling, Smoltz, Martinez and Glavine. Yet, in a nutshell, Moose dominates Glavine and is on the same plane as Schilling and Smoltz. Clemens, Johnson and Martinez are on a different playing field completely. However, the dominant will always fall in line to the elite. For every Drysdale, there’s a Koufax. For every Young there is a Johnson and for every Carlton, there is a Johnson. Greatness transcends time. The benchmark for talent is often Walter Johnson, who many feel is the best pitcher to ever throw a ball. That argument can certainly be made successfully. However, there is pure dominance following him, and Mussina belongs on that list.

The argument can be made that he doesn’t have the wins to be elected into the Hall of Fame. Wins are a team statistic, and should not affect a pitcher’s credentials. Afterall, a hitter isn’t affected when a pitcher throws a strike, why should a pitcher be affected when a hitter drives in a run? If we are to use wins to measure a pitcher’s success, should we not use winning percentage? After all, if one pitcher has significantly more innings pitched, he is apt to have a higher lump sum total. Mussina’s .638 winning percentage is good enough for 38^th all time, ahead of the king of wins himself, Cy Young. In fact, of the 23 members of the 300 win club, only 4 have a higher winning percentage than Mussina: Lefty Grove, Christy Mathewson, Roger Clemens and Grover Cleveland Alexander. Even with a majority of Mussina’s career coming on mediocre teams, he has still managed to land himself in the top 35 all times in wins, something the writers can not overlook.

Bill James often says that Hall of Famers are measured by their closest comparables. Mussina’s closest comparable, by a wide margin, is Juan Marichal. Today, no one is arguing with the Dominican Dandy’s position in Cooperstown. His comparable list also goes on to include Schilling and Gibson. For all of the media attention given to the players who talk and make a big deal of themselves, the one who has been amongst the most consistent and dominant might be the one overlooked. In a world with constant media attention and increased ability in hitters, the quiet and unassuming Mussina has been just what pitching needed: a throwback pitcher who flat out dominates and rewrites record books. Does Mussina need to reach the 3000 strikeout and 300 win plateau to reach it to Cooperstown? For his sake, hopefully not.

Looking Ahead – Matt Purke

Height: 6′ 3″ Weight: 170 lbs.
Position: Left-hand Pitcher
Bats: L Throws: L
Team: West
School: Klein High School

When building a perfect pitcher, two of the things you want most are pure stuff and confidence; Matt Purke lacks neither of these and it shows. Purke combines a fantastic fastball with an absolutely filthy set of breaking balls. He attacks hitters and doesn’t pitch to a pattern. Purke has really dominated the showcase circuit and performed adequately in the World Games, though his numbers are affected by one pretty mediocre outing. His fastball moves all over the plate and is around 93-97 from an effortless three quarter delivery. He profiles as a legit number one starter and should be a very early draft pick. He has moved from mid first round to top 5.

The fastball

A very quick fastball that sits around 94 and occasionally hits 97. It snaps in to left handed hitters and bares in on righties very quickly. His arm slot is consistent with the velocity and projects to add a few mph as his frame fills in. He should be able to sit at 96 and possibly hit triple digits under the right conditions. He throws both a two and four seam fastball, generating power from each pitch.

The breaking ball:

His slurve is utterly filthy, think Brad Lidge but lefty. It comes in around anywhere from 77-87 and drops over 2 planes. This is a legit putaway pitch and will become nearly unhittable for left handed hitters. This pitches projects to a 65-70. It has an 11-5 break.

The changeup:

As with most high schoolers, this pitch needs some work; however, unlike many high schoolers, Purke already has an advanced feel for the pitch. It comes in around 81 mph and is a circle change. It drops down and in to left handed hitters and fades away to righties. He doesn’t have multiple grips on it like a Cole Hamels or Johan Santana, but shows the ability to flash it.

By the numbers:

Purke allowed only four earned runs in 76.2 innings.

12-1 record

0.37 ERA

147 K

Complete stats unavailable.

Overall:

Purke offers extreme projectability and absolute potential. He is likely to be critically undervalued headed into the draft, much like Clayton Kershaw in 2006. Purke has pitched well on the showcase circuit, World Games and at the highest level thus far. Playing in Texas, he has faced Division 1 and MLB talent from a considerably young age. His stuff only figures to get better as he grows into his body. His delivery is effortless and very efficient and solid. Unless he goes second overall, he is going to be a steal. As it stands right now, he is second only to Stephen Strasburg, who just happens to be the best pitching prospect since Mark Prior.

MLB Comparison: Clayton Kershaw

Scouting Report – Madison Bumgarner

As a note, this is going to be written anecdotally, rather than a full scouting report and analysis. As many of my readers know, I love Madison Bumgarner. His stuff, his athleticism, his age, his inexperience, you name it. I argued tooth and nail with scouts, writers, friends, anyone who could formulate a cogent sentence for Bumgarner over Porcello. In fact, I had him ranked second on my 2007 big board behind David Price.

Lefty pitchers with solid mechanics, a 98 mph heater with movement, a promising slurve and changeup and most of all, little to no wear on their arm are incredible rarities. This past week I was able to finally see him pitch in person and I came away incredibly impressed. The strengths in his game are obvious, turning the weaknesses into strengths is definitely something that is a work in progress, though not far off. Bumgarner definitely flashes the signs of front line starter and perennial All-Star, though he also looks like a kid who is still a month away from turning 19.

The fastball:

Bumgarner consistently sat in the low to mid 90’s with ridiculous movement all over the plate. He touched 99 on one pitch that absolutely blew away the hitter. This was down from most of the videos of Bumgarner I’ve watched, though I’m fairly confident the gun was a little slow. Generally, the fastball was thrown for strikes. He did establish a pattern that was fairly easy to break down, hence a lot of early swings and contact made. The fastball became Bumgarner’s prime weapon, one of his biggest weaknesses. The Lakewood lineup was stacked with right handed hitters, knowing Bumgarner dominates lefties. However, with most righthanded hitters, Bumgarner started with a fastball down and away, something that led to a lot of early swings.

The changeup:

This is clearly Bumgarner’s biggest weakness, as it is with many young pitchers. In high school, the changeup tends to be a poor pitch because high school hitters can’t catch up to the fastball, making the changeup easier to hit. The change breaks away from right handed hitters as velocity falls out. This projects to an above average pitch, once it is thrown more consistently for strikes; of his changeups, roughly half were balls. It sits comfortably in the low 80’s, offering a true 10 mph difference in velocity from his fastball.

The slider:

The breaking pitch is a relatively new concept to Bumgarner, so it is only natural to be pretty raw. Stories have said that Bumgarner’s father wouldn’t allow him to throw the breaking pitch until high school, which really projects well for durability as it eliminates torque on the elbow at a young and extremely fragile age. His slurve sits in the high 70’s and offers a late break and grades as a true strikeout pitch. Command is again needed on this pitch, but it shows promise.

Overall:

Bumgarner projects as a top flight left handed starter with absolutely devastating stuff. At 6’6” he has legit power pitcher size and the frame to add another 20 pounds without showing it. He shows a propensity to pitch inside, regularly cracking and breaking bats. He broke 2 in 3 innings at one point on Thursday July 10^th, 2008. His mechanics are repeatable, with little wasted motion. He is very young for his level, as an 18 year old in Low A ball. His only two flaws are consistent command and experience. Experience is a given, provided he stays healthy. Bumgarner, in addition to being sheerly dominant and allowing few base runners, possesses the best pickoff move I have ever seen.  If a base runner reaches against him, there is a very good chance he will not make it past first or second.  The command should come with the experience. Bumgarner will undoubtedly struggle initially as he reaches the high minors, though that only will serve as a test of his true ability to handle the pressure. Remember, some of the best lefties ever took an awfully long time to reach their apex. Sandy Koufax and Randy Johnson might just have company in another 25 years as the most dominant lefties of all time.

By the numbers:

7.764 H/9

1.635 BB/9

9.501 K/9

1.044 WHIP

MLB Comparison: Randy Johnson/Andrew Miller

As a note, I am trying to have Mr. Bumgarner answer a few questions for me. If I am successful, I’ll hotlink the questions to this entry.

Looking Ahead – Alex White

Continuing the look ahead to 2009, we find our first sinkerball pitcher, Alex White. White offers good size, clean mechanics, extremely polished stuff and front line potential. Standing at 6’3” 195, he is able to get great leverage on his downward breaking stuff. White has pitched at some of the highest levels of college baseball. Though he doesn’t have the extreme resume available as a Stephen Strasburg, he does bring to the table consistency, durability and projectability.

The fastball:

Good velocity with a very heavy tilt. It is a true sinker in the mold of Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay. It breaks down and in to most right handed hitters with some slight movement to lefties. It is very loose and comes in around 91-93 mph consistently.

The breaking stuff:

A solid offering that is more of a slurve pitch. It has a lot of early movement and follows down by boring in on the batter. It is easily his second best pitch and really should make a bigger difference against wooden bats than against aluminum.

The changeup:

This is where White needs to improve the most, consistency with his changeup. As a sinkerball pitcher, giving the hitter a second look at a slower pitch isn’t necessarily as important as a pure power pitcher, but it certainly helps. White should easily be able to improve this pitch by the time he is ready for the draft and will continue to improve by the time he has reached the majors.

By the numbers:

6.90 H/9

3.74 BB/9

10.00 K/9

1.19 WHIP

MLB Comparison – Brandon Webb

Looking Ahead – Dustin Ackley

As we continue to look ahead to the 2009 draft, there is one hitter who is head and (tar)heels above the rest—Dustin Ackley. Ackley doesn’t possess the huge power numbers or projection that many elite players show, but has legit power to all fields with a compact stroke that translates better to wood than it does with aluminum. His defense is very passable at first and right field, but there are rumors of him moving to second where he becomes an even bigger asset. He has 4 legit tools right now and projects to add more power with a shift to wood.

At the Plate:

Ackley has a very smooth and easy left handed swing and an open stance. It is very comparable to Chase Utley’s, without the bat movement on the shoulders. He waits on the ball extremely well and drives the ball to all fields. His bat profiles as a contact hitter with 20-30 homer potential and 40-50 doubles with a .300 average. He is likely a very good number two hitter in the mold of Utley and Johnny Damon.

On the Field:

Ackley provides future Gold Glove quality defense at first base and passable defense in right field. He is an extremely fluid athlete who should be able to move to second base where his bat becomes much bigger of an impact. He has a strong arm, soft hands and very natural footwork.

On the basepaths:

Ackley has surprising speed and projects to steal 20+ bases consistently. His speed is surprising for someone of his size and his build.

The skinny:

Ackley is a complete player and very vocal team leader. He has incredible contact skill, good power and great defense. His speed will allow his team to go first to third quite often and he can steal bases when necessary. His time in the minors should be a very short one, even if he is learning a new position. Ackley burst onto the scene to win Freshman of the Year honors and be named an All-American.

By the numbers:

.417/.503/.597

.51 SO/BB

19 SB

.998 Fielding %

MLB Comparison: Chase Utley

Prior to the Injuries – A pitcher on his Mark

Few players evoke the “what if” question more than Mark Prior. On one hand, Prior was the best pitcher in baseball, bar none, in his second year in the league. On the other hand, Prior has gone through a litany of injuries throughout his young major league career.

The injuries are well documented. However, what many fail to realize is that all of the injuries were caused directly by one: his Achilles injury. As Curt Schilling will gladly tell you, leg injuries cause mechanics to be severely altered, thus a strain is put on the pitching arm that wouldn’t be there. Assuming Prior’s injuries never occurred, his numbers project out to absolute sheer dominance. Consider this, as a 22 year old, Prior struck out 245 and put up an ERA + of 178. Prior should have been a shoe in for the Cy Young, but a steroids user Eric Gagne swept the competition away.

Simply put, based on 200 innings a year, Prior’s career would have ended with over 300 wins and 5000 strikeouts. This includes his poor seasons following the shoulder injury. His numbers directly translate to 302 wins, 5201 strikeouts with a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.59, good enough for 11^th on the all time list.

Now, the question remains. What if….

Looking Ahead-Matt Graham

As we continue to look ahead to the 2009 draft, there seems to be one clear cut option in the right handed prep ranks, Matt Graham. Graham combines elite power pitcher size at 6’3” 200 with smooth and extremely advanced mechanics. His stuff is accented only by his size and projectability. He has the chance to be the best Texan righthander since Homer Bailey in 2004. His fastball sits in the low-mid 90’s and his breaking stuff is extremely polished for someone so young. He grades out as a future number one starter.

The fastball:

Graham has learned in high school what it takes most prep pitchers 2 years in the minors to learn: harder is not always better. The great pitchers learn to sacrifice some velocity for better command and movement. Graham sits in the 92-94 range with the ability to add more velocity as he matures physically. It has exceptional movement, breaking to both sides of the plate, which he has extremely advanced command of.

The breaking stuff:

Like Graham’s fastball, his curve is extremely advanced and projects to a plus-plus pitch. He throws an 11-5 curveball ranging from 79-82 mph. It’s a dominant pitch and going to be a strikeout pitch. It’s especially effective to right handed hitters as it breaks down and in to them and serves as a knee buckler.

The changeup:

Graham throws a solid, yet unspectacular, as with most high schoolers. However, it does project to be an above average offering down the road. The changeup is often not utilized in high school as most hitters have the advantage when the pitch is slower, rather than faster. He shows a good feel for when and how to use it, it just needs more consistency.

By the numbers:

Unfortunately complete high school stats are unavailable. The wooden bat tournament showcase numbers will be uploaded upon availability.

MLB Comparison: Roy Halladay

Looking ahead–Stephen Strasburg

Though the 2008 draft is only days behind us, it is important to look forward to 2009. 2009 looks to be the strongest class in quite some time, offering quite a bit of college pitching, highly touted prep arms and some legit game changing bats. Over the next few weeks, the top college players will be broken down and ranked according to their ability, stuff, projectability and other legit comparisons.

2009 offers arguably the best college right handed pitcher in 5 years, Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg combines a mid to upper 90’s fastball with a devastating slider and surprisingly advanced changeup. His delivery is smooth, repeatable and has no wasted motion. At 6’4” 220 pounds, he offers a legit power pitchers frame. His lower half is very sturdy and his legs are extremely powerful, which only adds to the velocity. His frame offers the ability to add up to 20 pounds without showing it.

The fastball:

Excellent fastball with slight tailing movement, usually around 94-97 with the ability to hit triple digits. He has been clocked as high as 102 mph. Strasburg has no problem working the corners, coming inside to right handed hitters and away from left handed hitters. It has a late break and is one of his main strikeout pitches. It is established early, often and is a tremendous setup and also put away pitch.

The breaking stuff:

For someone who can hit triple digits to have their fastball be their second best pitch is saying something tremendous about the player. This is a legit putaway pitch that cuts hard across the plate and is as effective to righties as it is to lefties.

The changeup:

Right now just an average offering, though project to an above average pitch. It complements his fastball very well and moves quite a bit. Its movement is down and away, so it has the effect of a splitter as well.

By the numbers:

Second in strikeouts only to fourth overall pick Brian Matusz (in 2 fewer appearances).

5.64 H/9

1.48 BB/9

12.3 K/9

.793 WHIP

MLB Comparison – Mark Prior

The breakdown of Dontrelle Willis

Coming into the season, the Detroit Tigers were widely praised for “winning the offseason.” After all, they had just traded for perennial all-star Miguel Cabrera and former Cy Young runner up, Dontrelle Willis. These moves excited a Tigers fan base who had lost the World Series two years prior.

The Tigers thought they had acquired a young, Hall of Fame talent in Cabrera, whose closest 4 year comp has continued to be Hank Aaron. What team wouldn’t want Cabrera? However, Larry Beinfest managed to play Dave Dombrowski like a fiddle. Cabrera was the best name in the deal, and he has had an average year thus far, though he is still far below his career norms.

The second biggest name in the deal, Dontrelle Willis, added size to the deal just based on reputation alone. Looking at Willis’ numbers, it’s clear that he is one of the most overrated and overvalued talents in baseball. Save his 2005 season, Willis has been relatively mediocre in the big leagues. There has been a three year trend with Willis that is exceptionally alarming. Each year his strikeouts decrease, walks increase and hits allowed increases. These numbers, his peripherals, all are trending downwards.

When statistically evaluating a pitcher, it is important not to fall victim to the rate statistics. A pitcher’s earned run average, ERA, fluctuates from year to year based on many confounding variables—defense, park factor, schedule, scoring, et al. However, his hit, walks and strikeouts per 9 innings pitched tend to remain steadfast and offer a true indicator of success. When a player is in his prime, these numbers often improve and offer a pattern of prediction for value.

Marlins fans clamored when their team traded away their two biggest names, leaving only Hanley Ramirez. However, it is clear that Larry Beinfest knows what he is doing and Dave Dombrowski was still enamored with the big name. Though Andrew Miller hasn’t pitched particularly well in 2008, he is still offering the same production Willis would have at a tenth of the cost.

Below will show the extreme disparity in Willis’ numbers and trend. It’s a shame to see the career unfolding before our eyes of a young, by all accounts nice man.

Looking ahead to the 2009 MLB draft

With the 2008 draft only a few hours in the books, it’s never too early to look forward to 2009, a draft that definitely looks extremely top heavy. It’s another weak prep year overall, but does have one player who will make heads turn.

It really seems like the advantage next year is college pitching, whereas this year was college hitting.

My big board.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP San Diego State

No player has done more for himself in a year than Strasburg. Strasburg throws hard, he throws strikes and he throws with a mean streak. Strasburg has the prototypical power pitcher’s body at 6′4″ 220 pounds. He has a fluid and easily repeatable delivery. He sits at 95-98 mph, occasionally reaching triple digits when he really reaches back. Honestly, he’s the best college pitcher and pitching prospect since Jered Weaver in 2005, and arguably since Mark Prior in 2001. In fact, he looks a lot like Prior with clean mechanics and the ability to throw 4 pitches in any count, all of which can strike a batter out.

MLB Comparison: Mark Prior, pre shoulder destruction

2. Matt Graham, RHP Oak Ridge HS

Without a doubt, the best right handed Texas pitcher since Homer Bailey and about on par with Clayton Kershaw. He’s a righty who works in the mid 90’s with a ball that moves like a 28 year old, not an 18 year old. His fastball breaks down and away to left handed hitters and cuts back for right handed hitters. In addition, he throws a very tight curveball that rotates quickly and complements his fastball perfectly. His changeup, like most high school pitchers, is still a work in progress. However, he has shown very solid command of it just throws it sparingly as it is a near useless pitch in high school. Like Strasburg, he offers the power build at 6′3″, 200 pounds and only figures to add a few MPH to his fastball as he grows.

MLB Comparison: Roy Halladay

3. Dustin Ackley, 1B North Carolina

Ackley burst onto the scene as a freshman mashing to over a 400 average. In 2008, he did nothing but improve. His OBP was over 500 while providing good power and defense. His bat projects extremely well to the bigs, providing a 300 plus average with an OBP around 400. He reminds me almost exactly of Chase Utley. He runs out every single play, has a quick and compact swing and should hit 20-30 homers.

MLB Comparison: Chase Utley

4. Alex White, RHP North Carolina

Another Tarheel pitcher who has marquee, front line stuff. White has a plus-plus sinker, an above average slider and strikeout stuff. White has the frame to add a little bit more weight and still be effective. He has pitched with great scrutiny since arriving at Chapel Hill and has done nothing to dispel that notion. He should arrive very quickly with his polish and stuff.

MLB Comparison: Brandon Webb

5. Mychal Givens, SS Plant HS

Another in the line of toolsy high school hitters. Many scouts are decently high on him, and his tools deserve for him to be up here. However, unlike the uberprospects of the past few years, Uptons, Bruce, Maybin, Beckham, et al. Givens is extremely and fundamentally raw. However, he offers plus arm strength, hitting 95 on the mound. He has tremendous speed on the bases and shows a great feel for the drag bunt. However, his swing is average at best and really worries me at the highest level.

MLB Comparison: Juan Pierre (I told you I’m not sold)